Russia-Ukraine tensions to impact Indian cement producers

The surging fuel costs in the wake of Russia-Ukraine tensions will impact Indian cement manufacturers, which are already reeling under increasing prices of raw material and energy.

The price of Brent crude increased 3.08% a barrel to $98.3 on Tuesday evening, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 4.2% to $94.9. The power and fuel prices of significant players – Ultratech Cement, Ambuja Cements and ACC Limited – have increased by 39%, 58% and 26% in the December quarter. Fuel prices will additionally impact the logistics costs of firms, which are stumbling with lower demand.

Energy and logistics prices together are about 60% of the overall prices of cement makers. Raw material prices add up to about 13-15%. The energy cost of Ultratech, which is the biggest cement producer with 114.55 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) production capacity, grew 39% year-on-year to Rs 1,327 a tonne in the December quarter.

Logistics prices grew 4% yearly to Rs 1,229 a tonne. Raw material costs -- fly ash and gypsum -- rose 7% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 538 a tonne. Sales volume dropped slightly by 3% to 23.13 million tonnes (mt).

For Ambuja, which has 31.45 mtpa capacity, the freight and forwarding cost has dipped by 4.5% to Rs 1,178 a tonne in the December quarter, however, fuel cost increased 58% to Rs 1,572 a tonne. Raw material prices were up 7.9% to Rs 408 a tonne.

The sales volume of cement and clinker has boosted marginally to 7.2 mt from 7 mt. Ambuja's subsidiary ACC has noticed its power and fuel prices increase by 26% to Rs 1,165 a tonne in October-December. It has decreased the freight and forwarding cost by 1% to Rs 1,234 a tonne. Raw material costs rose 13% to Rs 490 a tonne. Yet, cement sales volume grew by only 1% to 6.57 mt.

Factoring in current energy cost and cement cost trends, they are cutting 2022 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) estimates (of Ambuja) by 14%, Edelweiss says in its report. In all probability, the margins in the December quarter have bottomed out and should see a steady recovery ahead.

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