+
IEA Says Middle East Hostilities Will Widen Global Oil Deficit
ECONOMY & POLICY

IEA Says Middle East Hostilities Will Widen Global Oil Deficit

The International Energy Agency said global oil supply will fall by four point three million barrels per day (mn bpd) this year as renewed hostilities in the Middle East disrupted flows and pushed markets into a deeper deficit. The agency noted that tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz resumed, that a US blockade curtailed Iranian exports and that assaults in the Bab el-Mandeb and drone strikes in the Black Sea further reduced available shipments. It also cited constrained CPC Blend exports from Kazakhstan.

The agency said this is a deterioration from the 3.7 mn bpd contraction forecast in July and reduces total supply to 102.02 mn bpd, its lowest projection for the year. That would leave global supply about one point two seven mn bpd below demand, widening from an 860,000 bpd shortfall implied in July. Middle East loadings recovered to 20 mn bpd at the start of July but fell back to 12 mn bpd later, and the region's production remained eight point three mn bpd below pre-war levels.

The IEA expects an oil market deficit of one point eight mn bpd over July to September, a downward revision of one mn bpd from the prior forecast, which would be the deepest quarterly shortfall since late 2021. For 2027 the agency anticipates global supply could exceed demand by four point six one mn bpd if tensions de-escalate, which might permit inventories to recover to February 2026 levels by mid next year after cumulative stock draws of 410 mn barrels.

The IEA revised its demand view to a contraction this year of one point six mn bpd, deeper than the roughly one mn bpd drop signalled last month, while OPEC still expects growth of 580,000 bpd, though 200,000 bpd lower than before. Russian refining remained close to a 20 year low at three point nine mn bpd in July and Russian oil output edged down by 100,000 bpd to eight point seven six mn bpd. Global refinery crude processing was down by five mn bpd in July, supporting record refining margins.

The International Energy Agency said global oil supply will fall by four point three million barrels per day (mn bpd) this year as renewed hostilities in the Middle East disrupted flows and pushed markets into a deeper deficit. The agency noted that tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz resumed, that a US blockade curtailed Iranian exports and that assaults in the Bab el-Mandeb and drone strikes in the Black Sea further reduced available shipments. It also cited constrained CPC Blend exports from Kazakhstan. The agency said this is a deterioration from the 3.7 mn bpd contraction forecast in July and reduces total supply to 102.02 mn bpd, its lowest projection for the year. That would leave global supply about one point two seven mn bpd below demand, widening from an 860,000 bpd shortfall implied in July. Middle East loadings recovered to 20 mn bpd at the start of July but fell back to 12 mn bpd later, and the region's production remained eight point three mn bpd below pre-war levels. The IEA expects an oil market deficit of one point eight mn bpd over July to September, a downward revision of one mn bpd from the prior forecast, which would be the deepest quarterly shortfall since late 2021. For 2027 the agency anticipates global supply could exceed demand by four point six one mn bpd if tensions de-escalate, which might permit inventories to recover to February 2026 levels by mid next year after cumulative stock draws of 410 mn barrels. The IEA revised its demand view to a contraction this year of one point six mn bpd, deeper than the roughly one mn bpd drop signalled last month, while OPEC still expects growth of 580,000 bpd, though 200,000 bpd lower than before. Russian refining remained close to a 20 year low at three point nine mn bpd in July and Russian oil output edged down by 100,000 bpd to eight point seven six mn bpd. Global refinery crude processing was down by five mn bpd in July, supporting record refining margins.

Related Stories

Gold Stories

Next Story
Infrastructure Transport

MMRDA Targets Completion of Projects by December 2028

The Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) is targeting the completion of all its ongoing infrastructure projects by December 2028, a year ahead of its December 2029 deadline, Metropolitan Commissioner Dr Sanjay Mukherjee has said.Speaking at the sixth edition of the Real Estate & Infrastructure Investors' Summit (REIIS) 2026 in Mumbai, Mukherjee said the authority was developing an integrated network of roads, tunnels, sea links and Metro corridors under its broader vision of “Mumbai in 59 Minutes”.The objective is to improve east-west and north-south connectivity an..

Next Story
Building Material

High-Performance Façades Gain Ground in Indian Buildings

High-performance façades are gaining greater importance in Indian architecture as developers and architects increasingly focus on energy efficiency, thermal comfort and building performance, according to Shankar Fenestrations & Glasses.The company said modern façade systems are increasingly being considered as part of a building's overall performance strategy rather than being used primarily as aesthetic elements.High-performance glass, curtain wall systems and structural glazing can contribute to thermal regulation, solar control, daylight management and indoor comfort. Their growing ad..

Next Story
Technology

SPML Infra's 104.4 kWh BESS Battery Pack Clears Global Tests

SPML Infra has announced that its proprietary 104.4 kWh Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) battery pack has completed key international safety, performance and transportation testing and certification requirements, marking a step towards its commercial deployment.Developed under the company's own intellectual property, the battery pack has completed requirements under UL9540A, IEC 62619, IEC 63056, IEC 60730, IEC 61000-6-2, IEC 61000-6-4 and UN38.3 standards.The testing covers areas including thermal runaway safety, battery performance, system functional safety, electromagnetic compatibility..

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

SPECIAL OFFER
QR Code