India's Remarkable GDP Growth: Third Largest by 2030

25 Oct 2023 CW Team

After two years of robust economic expansion in 2021 and 2022, India has shown unwavering momentum in 2023. Projections indicate that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is set to surge, growing at a rate of 6.2-6.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024. This pace makes India the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year, building on the stellar 7.8 per cent growth witnessed in the April-June quarter.

S&P Global attributes this strong growth to continued rapid expansion, driven by robust domestic demand. The acceleration of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows over the past decade underscores India's favorable long-term growth outlook. Factors contributing to India's economic ascent include a burgeoning middle class, rapidly rising urban household incomes, and a youthful demographic profile.

One particularly striking projection indicates that India's nominal GDP, when measured in USD terms, is poised to climb from $3.5 trillion in 2022 to a staggering $7.3 trillion by 2030. This remarkable pace of economic expansion is expected to propel India into the second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region, surpassing Japan by 2030. By 2022, India had already eclipsed the GDP of the United Kingdom and France, and by 2030, it is forecast to outpace Germany.

Currently, the United States claims the title of the world's largest economy, boasting a GDP of $25.5 trillion, which accounts for a quarter of the world's total GDP. China follows as the second-largest economy with a GDP size of approximately $18 trillion, representing nearly 17.9 per cent of the world's GDP. Japan, with a GDP of $4.2 trillion, stands as a distant third, trailed closely by Germany with a GDP of $4 trillion.

S&P Global highlights several key drivers behind India's promising long-term outlook. Notably, the country's expanding middle class plays a pivotal role in boosting consumer spending. India's sizable industrial sector, coupled with its rapidly growing domestic consumer market, has positioned the nation as an attractive investment destination for a wide range of multinationals, spanning manufacturing, infrastructure, and services sectors.

India's ongoing digital transformation is poised to accelerate e-commerce growth, reshaping the retail consumer market in the coming decade. Leading global tech and e-commerce companies are increasingly drawn to the Indian market. By 2030, it is anticipated that 1.1 billion Indians will have internet access, more than doubling from the estimated 500 million internet users in 2020.

The swift expansion of e-commerce, along with the shift to 4G and 5G smartphone technology, is driving growth for home-grown unicorns like Mensa Brands, Delhivery, and BigBasket. The surge in foreign direct investment inflows into India, evident over the past five years, continues to gain momentum, even during the pandemic years of 2020-2022.

India, the world's fifth-largest economy, is on the cusp of a transformative journey that could see it overtake Japan as the globe's third-largest economic powerhouse by 2030. S&P Global Market Intelligence's latest report paints a compelling picture of India's remarkable economic growth and potential. After two years of robust economic expansion in 2021 and 2022, India has shown unwavering momentum in 2023. Projections indicate that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is set to surge, growing at a rate of 6.2-6.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024. This pace makes India the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year, building on the stellar 7.8 per cent growth witnessed in the April-June quarter. S&P Global attributes this strong growth to continued rapid expansion, driven by robust domestic demand. The acceleration of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows over the past decade underscores India's favorable long-term growth outlook. Factors contributing to India's economic ascent include a burgeoning middle class, rapidly rising urban household incomes, and a youthful demographic profile. One particularly striking projection indicates that India's nominal GDP, when measured in USD terms, is poised to climb from $3.5 trillion in 2022 to a staggering $7.3 trillion by 2030. This remarkable pace of economic expansion is expected to propel India into the second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region, surpassing Japan by 2030. By 2022, India had already eclipsed the GDP of the United Kingdom and France, and by 2030, it is forecast to outpace Germany. Currently, the United States claims the title of the world's largest economy, boasting a GDP of $25.5 trillion, which accounts for a quarter of the world's total GDP. China follows as the second-largest economy with a GDP size of approximately $18 trillion, representing nearly 17.9 per cent of the world's GDP. Japan, with a GDP of $4.2 trillion, stands as a distant third, trailed closely by Germany with a GDP of $4 trillion. S&P Global highlights several key drivers behind India's promising long-term outlook. Notably, the country's expanding middle class plays a pivotal role in boosting consumer spending. India's sizable industrial sector, coupled with its rapidly growing domestic consumer market, has positioned the nation as an attractive investment destination for a wide range of multinationals, spanning manufacturing, infrastructure, and services sectors. India's ongoing digital transformation is poised to accelerate e-commerce growth, reshaping the retail consumer market in the coming decade. Leading global tech and e-commerce companies are increasingly drawn to the Indian market. By 2030, it is anticipated that 1.1 billion Indians will have internet access, more than doubling from the estimated 500 million internet users in 2020. The swift expansion of e-commerce, along with the shift to 4G and 5G smartphone technology, is driving growth for home-grown unicorns like Mensa Brands, Delhivery, and BigBasket. The surge in foreign direct investment inflows into India, evident over the past five years, continues to gain momentum, even during the pandemic years of 2020-2022.