India's record steel imports raise concerns amidst global trends

According to a report by Elara Securities, India's steel imports in November reached an unprecedented high of 1.2 million tonnes, marking the highest level since data tracking began in CY06. The year-to-date (YTD) volume for CY23 has surged to a six-year peak at 7.0 million tonnes. Notably, India has sustained its status as a net steel importer for the third consecutive month in November. The report underscores the persistent concern over the impact of increased imports on domestic steel prices. Despite this, there is a positive trend in steel prices in China, which is expected to narrow the price differential between Indian and imported steel products. The report highlights that the lack of significant relief from elevated raw material prices is likely to compel steelmakers to maintain steel prices in order to protect profitability. Data from the World Steel Association (WSA) reveals a modest 1% year-on-year recovery in global crude steel production to 150 million tonnes in October. This growth was driven by a 3% year-on-year increase in production for the rest of the world (ROW), offsetting a 2% year-on-year decline reported in China. On a monthly basis, global production dipped slightly due to a 4% month-on-month fall in China, while ROW experienced a 4% month-on-month rise. India has consistently demonstrated robust performance, achieving double-digit production growth for the fifth consecutive month. In October, India's crude steel production witnessed a 15% year-on-year increase and a 3% month-on-month rise. However, according to provisional data, India's crude steel production registered a 13% year-on-year increase but declined by 3% month-on-month in November, according to the report.