Nomura: Indian steel majors among best-positioned producers worldwide
Steel

Nomura: Indian steel majors among best-positioned producers worldwide

India's steel industry is set to expand significantly over the next few years, with plans to add around 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura.

As per the report, the industry is reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent. The report noted that this growth target is in consistent with the industry's long-term average growth from FY15 to FY24.

Despite this substantial increase in capacity, experts believe that the Indian steel sector is poised to enter a favorable phase.

"We estimate India's steel industry will add approx. 23MT crude steel capacity over FY24-27F, at an implied 4.8 pc CAGR, in line with the FY15-24 long-term average" said the report.

The report noted that the steel majors JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel should account for nearly 87 per cent of the ongoing capacity expansion. Although the report noted that significant capacity will come onstream over the next three years.

The JSW steel is set to add 7MT by FY28F at a 5 per cent CAGR over FY24-28F, according to the report. While the JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27F at an 18 per cent CAGR over FY24- 27F.

The report also suggested that even under a conservative assumption of 6 per cent CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7 per cent over the last five years), capacity additions are still expected to fall behind demand growth during this period. This could lead to an improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, reducing the need for steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.

"Improvement in domestic supply-demand fundamentals through FY27F would suggest reduced dependence on exports for volume growth" added the report.

India's steel companies are well-positioned within the global metals sector, according to analysts. These companies benefit from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve, mainly due to lower labor costs. Additionally, India's iron ore costs remain competitive compared to other countries, even for non-integrated steel producers.

The future expansion of India's steel industry is expected to be driven largely by brownfield projects, where existing facilities are expanded or upgraded. Strong domestic demand is another factor that could help reduce the industry's reliance on exports.

Over the past few years, India's steel production has grown at a 6 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2023, far outpacing China's 1 per cent growth and the rest of the world's 1 per cent decline. With these factors in place, Indian steel companies are seen as some of the best-positioned producers globally, offering significant growth potential in the coming years.

"We believe Indian steel majors are among the best-placed producers globally" the report noted.

India's steel industry is set to expand significantly over the next few years, with plans to add around 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura.As per the report, the industry is reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent. The report noted that this growth target is in consistent with the industry's long-term average growth from FY15 to FY24.Despite this substantial increase in capacity, experts believe that the Indian steel sector is poised to enter a favorable phase.We estimate India's steel industry will add approx. 23MT crude steel capacity over FY24-27F, at an implied 4.8 pc CAGR, in line with the FY15-24 long-term average said the report.The report noted that the steel majors JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel should account for nearly 87 per cent of the ongoing capacity expansion. Although the report noted that significant capacity will come onstream over the next three years.The JSW steel is set to add 7MT by FY28F at a 5 per cent CAGR over FY24-28F, according to the report. While the JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27F at an 18 per cent CAGR over FY24- 27F.The report also suggested that even under a conservative assumption of 6 per cent CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7 per cent over the last five years), capacity additions are still expected to fall behind demand growth during this period. This could lead to an improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, reducing the need for steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.Improvement in domestic supply-demand fundamentals through FY27F would suggest reduced dependence on exports for volume growth added the report.India's steel companies are well-positioned within the global metals sector, according to analysts. These companies benefit from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve, mainly due to lower labor costs. Additionally, India's iron ore costs remain competitive compared to other countries, even for non-integrated steel producers.The future expansion of India's steel industry is expected to be driven largely by brownfield projects, where existing facilities are expanded or upgraded. Strong domestic demand is another factor that could help reduce the industry's reliance on exports.Over the past few years, India's steel production has grown at a 6 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2023, far outpacing China's 1 per cent growth and the rest of the world's 1 per cent decline. With these factors in place, Indian steel companies are seen as some of the best-positioned producers globally, offering significant growth potential in the coming years.We believe Indian steel majors are among the best-placed producers globally the report noted.

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

India Spent Rs 1.5 Tn on Smart Cities in Past 10 Years

The Indian government launched the Smart Cities Mission on June 15, 2015, with the goal of transforming urban infrastructure across the country. As of April 11, 2025, ten years since its inception, over Rs 1.5 trillion has been spent on 7,504 completed projects, representing 94 per cent of the total planned projects valued at more than Rs 1.64 trillion. An additional Rs 131.42 billion worth of projects are currently under implementation. According to data from SBI Research, 92 per cent of the funds were utilised across 21 major states, with Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra together ..

Next Story
Infrastructure Energy

Hyundai’s EcoGram Converts Gurugram’s Waste to Clean Energy

Hyundai’s EcoGram, a biogas plant and material recovery facility located in Gurugram, Haryana, has been established to support circular economy initiatives. The facility collects both wet and dry waste from 20 bulk waste generators, including residential welfare associations (RWAs), corporate offices, and commercial complexes, with assistance from the Municipal Corporation of Gurugram (MCG). At the facility, the collected waste undergoes processing—wet waste is converted into biogas, which is then used to generate electricity, while dry waste is sorted for recycling. Since its inception,..

Next Story
Infrastructure Transport

Metro Line 8 DPR Nears Completion; CIDCO to Float Rs 200 Bn Tenders

The City and Industrial Development Corporation (CIDCO) is nearing completion of the Detailed Project Report (DPR) for Metro Line 8, commonly known as the Gold Line. This strategic 34.9-kilometre corridor is set to link Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (CSMIA) with the upcoming Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA). Estimated to cost around Rs 200 billion, the project is being developed under the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model. Once completed, Metro Line 8 will become Mumbai's second such corridor after Metro Line 1. CIDCO plans to float tenders once ..

Advertisement

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Talk to us?