Nomura: Indian steel majors among best-positioned producers worldwide
Steel

Nomura: Indian steel majors among best-positioned producers worldwide

India's steel industry is set to expand significantly over the next few years, with plans to add around 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura.

As per the report, the industry is reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent. The report noted that this growth target is in consistent with the industry's long-term average growth from FY15 to FY24.

Despite this substantial increase in capacity, experts believe that the Indian steel sector is poised to enter a favorable phase.

"We estimate India's steel industry will add approx. 23MT crude steel capacity over FY24-27F, at an implied 4.8 pc CAGR, in line with the FY15-24 long-term average" said the report.

The report noted that the steel majors JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel should account for nearly 87 per cent of the ongoing capacity expansion. Although the report noted that significant capacity will come onstream over the next three years.

The JSW steel is set to add 7MT by FY28F at a 5 per cent CAGR over FY24-28F, according to the report. While the JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27F at an 18 per cent CAGR over FY24- 27F.

The report also suggested that even under a conservative assumption of 6 per cent CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7 per cent over the last five years), capacity additions are still expected to fall behind demand growth during this period. This could lead to an improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, reducing the need for steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.

"Improvement in domestic supply-demand fundamentals through FY27F would suggest reduced dependence on exports for volume growth" added the report.

India's steel companies are well-positioned within the global metals sector, according to analysts. These companies benefit from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve, mainly due to lower labor costs. Additionally, India's iron ore costs remain competitive compared to other countries, even for non-integrated steel producers.

The future expansion of India's steel industry is expected to be driven largely by brownfield projects, where existing facilities are expanded or upgraded. Strong domestic demand is another factor that could help reduce the industry's reliance on exports.

Over the past few years, India's steel production has grown at a 6 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2023, far outpacing China's 1 per cent growth and the rest of the world's 1 per cent decline. With these factors in place, Indian steel companies are seen as some of the best-positioned producers globally, offering significant growth potential in the coming years.

"We believe Indian steel majors are among the best-placed producers globally" the report noted.

India's steel industry is set to expand significantly over the next few years, with plans to add around 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura.As per the report, the industry is reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent. The report noted that this growth target is in consistent with the industry's long-term average growth from FY15 to FY24.Despite this substantial increase in capacity, experts believe that the Indian steel sector is poised to enter a favorable phase.We estimate India's steel industry will add approx. 23MT crude steel capacity over FY24-27F, at an implied 4.8 pc CAGR, in line with the FY15-24 long-term average said the report.The report noted that the steel majors JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel should account for nearly 87 per cent of the ongoing capacity expansion. Although the report noted that significant capacity will come onstream over the next three years.The JSW steel is set to add 7MT by FY28F at a 5 per cent CAGR over FY24-28F, according to the report. While the JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27F at an 18 per cent CAGR over FY24- 27F.The report also suggested that even under a conservative assumption of 6 per cent CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7 per cent over the last five years), capacity additions are still expected to fall behind demand growth during this period. This could lead to an improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, reducing the need for steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.Improvement in domestic supply-demand fundamentals through FY27F would suggest reduced dependence on exports for volume growth added the report.India's steel companies are well-positioned within the global metals sector, according to analysts. These companies benefit from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve, mainly due to lower labor costs. Additionally, India's iron ore costs remain competitive compared to other countries, even for non-integrated steel producers.The future expansion of India's steel industry is expected to be driven largely by brownfield projects, where existing facilities are expanded or upgraded. Strong domestic demand is another factor that could help reduce the industry's reliance on exports.Over the past few years, India's steel production has grown at a 6 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2023, far outpacing China's 1 per cent growth and the rest of the world's 1 per cent decline. With these factors in place, Indian steel companies are seen as some of the best-positioned producers globally, offering significant growth potential in the coming years.We believe Indian steel majors are among the best-placed producers globally the report noted.

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

Maiden Forgings Becomes Approved Supplier to OFB Murad Nagar

Maiden Forgings Limited (MFL), one of India’s leading producers of bright steel bars and wires, has been officially registered as an approved supplier with the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB), Murad Nagar, under the Centralised Vendor Registration process.This recognition adds to MFL’s existing registration with OFB Kolkata, marking another strategic step in its deepening engagement with India’s defence manufacturing ecosystem. With this new approval, the company strengthens its foothold in the Business-to-Government (B2G) segment and expands its participation in the nation’s defence prod..

Next Story
Infrastructure Transport

DCIL Signs MoUs Worth Rs 176.45 Billion to Boost Maritime Modernisation

The Dredging Corporation of India Limited (DCIL) has signed 22 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with 16 organisations, collectively worth Rs 176.45 billion, during the India Maritime Week 2025 held at the Bombay Exhibition Centre, Mumbai, from 27–31 October.DCIL operates under a consortium of four major ports — Visakhapatnam Port Authority (VPA), Paradip Port Authority (PPA), Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA), and Deendayal Port Authority (DPA) — under the aegis of the Ministry of Ports, Shipping & Waterways (MoPSW).The MoUs include collaborations with leading ports such ..

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

Goa Advances Sustainable Future with Scientific Waste Management

Chief Minister Pramod Sawant reaffirmed Goa’s commitment to strengthening environmental sustainability through scientific and responsible waste management practices. He highlighted that the Common Hazardous Treatment and Storage Facility has become a key element in ensuring the safe, efficient, and sustainable management of hazardous waste across the State. Sawant said the state-of-the-art facility not only addresses critical environmental challenges but also supports local employment, with nearly 80 per cent of its workforce comprising Goan youth. He added that the State’s environmenta..

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement