+
Nomura: Indian steel majors among best-positioned producers worldwide
Steel

Nomura: Indian steel majors among best-positioned producers worldwide

India's steel industry is set to expand significantly over the next few years, with plans to add around 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura.

As per the report, the industry is reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent. The report noted that this growth target is in consistent with the industry's long-term average growth from FY15 to FY24.

Despite this substantial increase in capacity, experts believe that the Indian steel sector is poised to enter a favorable phase.

"We estimate India's steel industry will add approx. 23MT crude steel capacity over FY24-27F, at an implied 4.8 pc CAGR, in line with the FY15-24 long-term average" said the report.

The report noted that the steel majors JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel should account for nearly 87 per cent of the ongoing capacity expansion. Although the report noted that significant capacity will come onstream over the next three years.

The JSW steel is set to add 7MT by FY28F at a 5 per cent CAGR over FY24-28F, according to the report. While the JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27F at an 18 per cent CAGR over FY24- 27F.

The report also suggested that even under a conservative assumption of 6 per cent CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7 per cent over the last five years), capacity additions are still expected to fall behind demand growth during this period. This could lead to an improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, reducing the need for steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.

"Improvement in domestic supply-demand fundamentals through FY27F would suggest reduced dependence on exports for volume growth" added the report.

India's steel companies are well-positioned within the global metals sector, according to analysts. These companies benefit from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve, mainly due to lower labor costs. Additionally, India's iron ore costs remain competitive compared to other countries, even for non-integrated steel producers.

The future expansion of India's steel industry is expected to be driven largely by brownfield projects, where existing facilities are expanded or upgraded. Strong domestic demand is another factor that could help reduce the industry's reliance on exports.

Over the past few years, India's steel production has grown at a 6 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2023, far outpacing China's 1 per cent growth and the rest of the world's 1 per cent decline. With these factors in place, Indian steel companies are seen as some of the best-positioned producers globally, offering significant growth potential in the coming years.

"We believe Indian steel majors are among the best-placed producers globally" the report noted.

India's steel industry is set to expand significantly over the next few years, with plans to add around 23 million tonnes (MT) of crude steel capacity between FY24 and FY27, according to a report by Nomura.As per the report, the industry is reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8 per cent. The report noted that this growth target is in consistent with the industry's long-term average growth from FY15 to FY24.Despite this substantial increase in capacity, experts believe that the Indian steel sector is poised to enter a favorable phase.We estimate India's steel industry will add approx. 23MT crude steel capacity over FY24-27F, at an implied 4.8 pc CAGR, in line with the FY15-24 long-term average said the report.The report noted that the steel majors JSW, JSPL, Tata Steel and ArcelorMittal & Nippon Steel should account for nearly 87 per cent of the ongoing capacity expansion. Although the report noted that significant capacity will come onstream over the next three years.The JSW steel is set to add 7MT by FY28F at a 5 per cent CAGR over FY24-28F, according to the report. While the JSPL is set to add 6.3MT by FY27F at an 18 per cent CAGR over FY24- 27F.The report also suggested that even under a conservative assumption of 6 per cent CAGR in steel demand through FY27 (compared to 7 per cent over the last five years), capacity additions are still expected to fall behind demand growth during this period. This could lead to an improvement in the domestic supply-demand balance, reducing the need for steel companies to rely on exports for volume growth.Improvement in domestic supply-demand fundamentals through FY27F would suggest reduced dependence on exports for volume growth added the report.India's steel companies are well-positioned within the global metals sector, according to analysts. These companies benefit from operating at the lower end of the global cost curve, mainly due to lower labor costs. Additionally, India's iron ore costs remain competitive compared to other countries, even for non-integrated steel producers.The future expansion of India's steel industry is expected to be driven largely by brownfield projects, where existing facilities are expanded or upgraded. Strong domestic demand is another factor that could help reduce the industry's reliance on exports.Over the past few years, India's steel production has grown at a 6 per cent CAGR between 2019 and 2023, far outpacing China's 1 per cent growth and the rest of the world's 1 per cent decline. With these factors in place, Indian steel companies are seen as some of the best-positioned producers globally, offering significant growth potential in the coming years.We believe Indian steel majors are among the best-placed producers globally the report noted.

Next Story
Infrastructure Energy

Tata Power, Suzlon Ink Rs 60 Billion Wind Energy Deal in Andhra

Tata Power has signed an agreement with Suzlon Energy to develop, construct, and supply 700 megawatt (MW) wind turbines in Andhra Pradesh. The Rs 60 billion project forms part of a 7 gigawatt (GW) renewable energy plan announced by Tata Power Renewable Energy (TPREL) and the state government in March 2025.This marks the first wind energy project in the state since 2019. The larger 7 GW programme, covering solar, wind, and hybrid projects with or without storage, is expected to attract investments of around Rs 490 billion, making it one of the state’s largest clean energy commitments.The turb..

Next Story
Infrastructure Transport

Odisha Approves Rs 12.6 Billion For 32 New Bridges

Odisha is set for a major infrastructure boost with the approval of 32 new bridges under the Setu Bandhan Yojana for FY 2025–26. The project, valued at Rs 12.6 billion, is aimed at improving road connectivity across ten districts, enhancing mobility and driving local development.The bridges will be constructed in Bolangir, Subarnapur, Nayagarh, Sambalpur, Malkangiri, Bargarh, Koraput, Jagatsinghpur, Cuttack, and Puri. Many of these areas are rural or located in difficult terrains, where improved accessibility will greatly benefit the transportation of goods and public mobility.Setu Bandhan Y..

Next Story
Infrastructure Transport

UP Plans Rs 350 Billion Gorakhpur–Shamli Expressway

Uttar Pradesh is preparing to build its largest expressway, a 700-km six-lane project that will surpass the 570-km Ganga Expressway from Meerut to Prayagraj. Designed as a greenfield project, the Gorakhpur–Shamli Expressway will cut travel time between eastern and western Uttar Pradesh to just six hours, transforming regional connectivity.The expressway will pass through 22 districts and 37 tehsils, bringing faster travel and significant economic benefits, including higher land values for farmers and employment opportunities during and after construction. A drone survey to map the route is e..

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Talk to us?