India’s imports of Russian crude are running at around 1.8 mn barrels per day (bpd) in September, broadly steady from August but below July levels. Refinery maintenance, stronger Chinese buying and disruptions to Russian export infrastructure have contributed to the decline, while Middle Eastern suppliers have supplied replacement volumes. India imported 2.82 mn bpd of Russian crude in July, with the volume falling to 2.08 mn bpd in August, according to data from global commodities data and analytics firm Kpler. Kpler said Russian flows in September were being supported by the wider adjustment in India’s crude supply mix, rather than a complete shift away from Russian barrels. Iraq supplied about 505,000 bpd of crude to India in September, compared with 163,000 bpd in August. Saudi Arabia’s supplies rose to 576,000 bpd from 347,000 bpd, while the UAE provided 522,000 bpd, largely unchanged from 546,000 bpd in August. The figures show that Middle Eastern producers have absorbed much of the recent shortfall in Russian supplies. The outlook for Russian crude could become more complicated if the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 leads to tougher restrictions on countries continuing to buy Russian oil. India has consistently prioritised energy security, and a substantial reduction in Russian purchases is unlikely in the near term while the physical oil market remains tight, according to Kpler analyst Nikhil Dubey. India became a major buyer of Russian crude after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Western sanctions and a price cap redirected Russian oil towards Asian markets. Although Indian refiners can technically replace the barrels, doing so would increase competition for medium-grade crude from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers. The resulting pressure on crude differentials and freight rates could raise procurement costs and potentially support global oil prices. For now, the market is adjusting through higher Middle Eastern supplies rather than undergoing a wholesale change in sourcing.