Oil Rises on Positive China Data Amid Uncertain Israel Lebanon Ceasefire

03 Dec 2024 CW Team

Brent crude futures rose by 8 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $71.92 a barrel by 0107 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 9 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $68.09 a barrel.

Prices rose following an official survey that revealed China's factory activity had expanded modestly for the second consecutive month in November, suggesting that stimulus efforts were finally starting to have an effect, coinciding with an increase in trade threats from Donald Trump.

Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG based in Sydney, noted that the positive data from China was helping oil prices but added that concerns over the stability of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire were also contributing to the price rise.

The ceasefire, which had been implemented between Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday, was already under strain, with both sides accusing each other of violating the agreement.

The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that several people had been wounded in two Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, airstrikes intensified in Syria, with President Bashar al-Assad pledging to defeat insurgents who had entered Aleppo.

Both Brent and US crude benchmarks experienced a decline of more than 3 percent last week, as concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict eased and forecasts pointed to a surplus in supply for 2025, despite expectations that OPEC+ would extend its output cuts.

OPEC+ delayed its meeting to Dec 5, where discussions were underway regarding the postponement of an oil output increase scheduled for January. This meeting would determine policy for the early months of 2025.

Sycamore explained that extending the output cuts would give OPEC+ more time to assess the effects of Trump's policy announcements on tariffs and energy, as well as to observe China's response.

A Reuters monthly oil price poll showed that Brent crude was expected to average $74.53 per barrel in 2025, as economic weakness in China clouded the demand outlook, and ample global supplies were expected to outweigh support from a delay in the planned OPEC+ output hike.

Oil prices increased on Monday, supported by positive factory activity in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, and by rising tensions in the Middle East as Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreement. Brent crude futures rose by 8 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $71.92 a barrel by 0107 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 9 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $68.09 a barrel. Prices rose following an official survey that revealed China's factory activity had expanded modestly for the second consecutive month in November, suggesting that stimulus efforts were finally starting to have an effect, coinciding with an increase in trade threats from Donald Trump. Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG based in Sydney, noted that the positive data from China was helping oil prices but added that concerns over the stability of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire were also contributing to the price rise. The ceasefire, which had been implemented between Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday, was already under strain, with both sides accusing each other of violating the agreement. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that several people had been wounded in two Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, airstrikes intensified in Syria, with President Bashar al-Assad pledging to defeat insurgents who had entered Aleppo. Both Brent and US crude benchmarks experienced a decline of more than 3 percent last week, as concerns over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict eased and forecasts pointed to a surplus in supply for 2025, despite expectations that OPEC+ would extend its output cuts. OPEC+ delayed its meeting to Dec 5, where discussions were underway regarding the postponement of an oil output increase scheduled for January. This meeting would determine policy for the early months of 2025. Sycamore explained that extending the output cuts would give OPEC+ more time to assess the effects of Trump's policy announcements on tariffs and energy, as well as to observe China's response. A Reuters monthly oil price poll showed that Brent crude was expected to average $74.53 per barrel in 2025, as economic weakness in China clouded the demand outlook, and ample global supplies were expected to outweigh support from a delay in the planned OPEC+ output hike.

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