Oil trims losses on tight near-term supply

15 Nov 2024 CW Team

Oil prices edged up on signs of near-term supply tightness but remained near their lowest in two weeks a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.Brent futures rose 13 cents or 0.18% to $72.02 a barrel by 0205 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 13 cents, or 0.19 % , to $68.25. "Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand. Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly," ANZ analysts said in a note. But falling demand projections and weakness in major consumer China continued to weigh on market sentiment. In its monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month, mostly due to weakness in China, the worlds biggest oil importer. Oil prices settled up 0.1 % on Tuesday following the news, after falling by about 5 % during the two previous sessions. OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd. The IEA, which has a far lower view, is set to publish its updated forecast on Thursday. "The re-election of former President Trump is unlikely to materially affect oil market fundamentals over the near term, in our view," Barclays analysts wrote. "Drill, baby, drill: this is likely to underwhelm as a strategy to drive oil prices materially lower over the near term" given that the stock of approved permits actually rose under the Biden administration, the analysts said. However, markets would still feel the effects of a supply disruption from Iran or a further escalation between Iran and Israel, according to Barclays. Donald Trump's expected Secretary of State pick, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, is known for his hardline stance on Iran, China, and Cuba. Tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran could disrupt global oil supply, while a tougher approach to China could further weaken oil demand in the world's largest consumer. Two U.S. central bankers said on Tuesday that interest rates are acting as a brake on inflation that is still above the 2 % mark, suggesting that the Federal Reserve would be open to further interest rate cuts. The Fed cut its policy rate last week by a quarter of a %age point to the 4.50 % -4.75 % range. Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand. U.S. weekly inventory reports have been delayed by a day following Monday's Veterans Day holiday. The American Petroleum Institute industry group data is due at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT).Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 100,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 8.

Oil prices edged up on signs of near-term supply tightness but remained near their lowest in two weeks a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.Brent futures rose 13 cents or 0.18% to $72.02 a barrel by 0205 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 13 cents, or 0.19 % , to $68.25. Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand. Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly, ANZ analysts said in a note. But falling demand projections and weakness in major consumer China continued to weigh on market sentiment. In its monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd forecast last month, mostly due to weakness in China, the worlds biggest oil importer. Oil prices settled up 0.1 % on Tuesday following the news, after falling by about 5 % during the two previous sessions. OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd. The IEA, which has a far lower view, is set to publish its updated forecast on Thursday. The re-election of former President Trump is unlikely to materially affect oil market fundamentals over the near term, in our view, Barclays analysts wrote. Drill, baby, drill: this is likely to underwhelm as a strategy to drive oil prices materially lower over the near term given that the stock of approved permits actually rose under the Biden administration, the analysts said. However, markets would still feel the effects of a supply disruption from Iran or a further escalation between Iran and Israel, according to Barclays. Donald Trump's expected Secretary of State pick, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, is known for his hardline stance on Iran, China, and Cuba. Tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran could disrupt global oil supply, while a tougher approach to China could further weaken oil demand in the world's largest consumer. Two U.S. central bankers said on Tuesday that interest rates are acting as a brake on inflation that is still above the 2 % mark, suggesting that the Federal Reserve would be open to further interest rate cuts. The Fed cut its policy rate last week by a quarter of a %age point to the 4.50 % -4.75 % range. Interest rate cuts typically boost economic activity and energy demand. U.S. weekly inventory reports have been delayed by a day following Monday's Veterans Day holiday. The American Petroleum Institute industry group data is due at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT).Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 100,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 8.

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