OPEC+ Supply Increase Could Trigger Oil Surplus, IEA Data Suggest

14 Aug 2024 CW Team

The International Energy Agency's data indicated that global oil markets are expected to shift from a deficit to a surplus in the next quarter if OPEC+ follows through with its plans to increase supplies. The Paris-based agency reported that oil inventories are currently decreasing due to high summer driving demand but are anticipated to stabilise in the final quarter of the year.

The report suggested that this stabilization could lead to an oversupply if OPEC+ moves forward with its tentative plans to resume previously halted output starting in October. The IEA also noted that oil consumption in China, the largest importer, declined for a third consecutive month in June.

The agency, which provides advice to major economies, pointed out that despite the significant slowdown in Chinese oil demand growth, OPEC+ has not yet decided to abandon its strategy of gradually reversing voluntary production cuts beginning in the fourth quarter. OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has proposed a plan to increase production by about 543,000 barrels per day in the final quarter of the year but emphasized that this plan could be "paused or reversed" based on market conditions, with a decision expected in the coming weeks.

Crude oil prices have been fluctuating recently due to the summer driving surge and concerns over rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with signs of slowing economic growth in China. Brent futures are trading near $80 a barrel.

The IEA noted that currently, supply is struggling to meet peak summer demand, causing the market to experience a deficit. Consequently, global inventories have been affected, with stockpiles decreasing by 26.2 million barrels in June.

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