Ind-Ra revises thermal, wind outlook; stable infrastructure forecast FY25

24 May 2024 CW Team

The agency noted that the improvement in electricity demand and healthy plant load factors were anticipated to keep PLFs stable at 70 per cent in FY25, emphasising a change in the outlook for the thermal energy sector.

At the same time, Ind-Ra changed its outlook for wind assets from negative to stable, reflecting moderate improvements in generation and financial health. The stable outlook across the energy infrastructure was said to be supported by enhanced economic activity and a projected increase in power demand by about 7 per cent year-on-year in FY25.

Contrary to this, the agency expressed confidence in the airports sector, maintaining a positive outlook. According to Ind-Ra, the overall growth in passenger traffic was expected to be between 10 – 12 per cent, driven by improvements in regional connectivity and robust passenger growth at metro airports.

Ind-Ra reaffirmed a stable outlook for solar power projects, buoyed by significant capacity additions and continued stable operations. It was reported that about 15GW of solar capacity was added in FY24, following a consistent increase in previous years. However, challenges persisted due to procurement risks and implementation risks related to new regulations effective April 2024.

The agency also maintained stable outlooks for other segments of the infrastructure sector, including transmission projects, toll roads, and sea ports, citing sustained revenue visibility and adequate liquidity conditions. According to the agency, there was no material impact of the Red Sea crisis on Indian trade as alternative routes were explored, which supported a steady outlook for the sea ports sector.

Additionally, the agency kept a stable outlook on electric buses, highlighting the sector's adequate delivery track record and ongoing sponsor support despite some operational delays.

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) announced that it had revised its outlook for the energy sector, while maintaining a stable forecast for the overall infrastructure sector for fiscal year 2025. The agency stated that it had shifted its perspective on thermal assets from positive to stable, citing an expected rise in electricity demand and healthier plant load factors (PLFs) as the reasons for this adjustment. The agency noted that the improvement in electricity demand and healthy plant load factors were anticipated to keep PLFs stable at 70 per cent in FY25, emphasising a change in the outlook for the thermal energy sector. At the same time, Ind-Ra changed its outlook for wind assets from negative to stable, reflecting moderate improvements in generation and financial health. The stable outlook across the energy infrastructure was said to be supported by enhanced economic activity and a projected increase in power demand by about 7 per cent year-on-year in FY25. Contrary to this, the agency expressed confidence in the airports sector, maintaining a positive outlook. According to Ind-Ra, the overall growth in passenger traffic was expected to be between 10 – 12 per cent, driven by improvements in regional connectivity and robust passenger growth at metro airports. Ind-Ra reaffirmed a stable outlook for solar power projects, buoyed by significant capacity additions and continued stable operations. It was reported that about 15GW of solar capacity was added in FY24, following a consistent increase in previous years. However, challenges persisted due to procurement risks and implementation risks related to new regulations effective April 2024. The agency also maintained stable outlooks for other segments of the infrastructure sector, including transmission projects, toll roads, and sea ports, citing sustained revenue visibility and adequate liquidity conditions. According to the agency, there was no material impact of the Red Sea crisis on Indian trade as alternative routes were explored, which supported a steady outlook for the sea ports sector. Additionally, the agency kept a stable outlook on electric buses, highlighting the sector's adequate delivery track record and ongoing sponsor support despite some operational delays.

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