Ind-Ra updates thermal, wind outlook; FY25 infrastructure stable

24 May 2024 CW Team

Ind-Ra indicated that the improvement in electricity demand and healthy plant load factors were anticipated to keep PLFs stable at 70% in FY25, underscoring a shift in the outlook for the thermal energy sector.

Simultaneously, Ind-Ra revised its outlook for wind assets from negative to stable, reflecting moderate improvements in generation and financial health. The stable outlook across the energy infrastructure was supported by enhanced economic activity and a projected increase in power demand by about 7% year-on-year in FY25.

In contrast, the agency maintained a positive outlook for the airports sector, expressing confidence that overall growth in passenger traffic was expected to be between 10%-12%, driven by improvements in regional connectivity and robust passenger growth at metro airports.

The agency reaffirmed a stable outlook for solar power projects, supported by significant capacity additions and continued stable operations. Approximately 15GW of solar capacity was added in FY24, following a consistent increase in previous years. However, challenges remained due to procurement risks and implementation risks related to new regulations effective April 2024.

Ind-Ra also maintained stable outlooks for other segments of the infrastructure sector, including transmission projects, toll roads, and sea ports, citing sustained revenue visibility and adequate liquidity conditions. The agency noted that there was no material impact of the Red Sea crisis on Indian trade as alternative routes were explored, supporting a steady outlook for the sea ports sector.

Additionally, the agency kept a stable outlook on electric buses, highlighting the sector's adequate delivery track record and ongoing sponsor support despite some operational delays.

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) revised its outlook for the energy sector on Thursday, maintaining a stable forecast for the overall infrastructure sector for fiscal year 2025. The agency adjusted its perspective on thermal assets from positive to stable, attributing this change to an expected rise in electricity demand and healthier plant load factors (PLFs). Ind-Ra indicated that the improvement in electricity demand and healthy plant load factors were anticipated to keep PLFs stable at 70% in FY25, underscoring a shift in the outlook for the thermal energy sector. Simultaneously, Ind-Ra revised its outlook for wind assets from negative to stable, reflecting moderate improvements in generation and financial health. The stable outlook across the energy infrastructure was supported by enhanced economic activity and a projected increase in power demand by about 7% year-on-year in FY25. In contrast, the agency maintained a positive outlook for the airports sector, expressing confidence that overall growth in passenger traffic was expected to be between 10%-12%, driven by improvements in regional connectivity and robust passenger growth at metro airports. The agency reaffirmed a stable outlook for solar power projects, supported by significant capacity additions and continued stable operations. Approximately 15GW of solar capacity was added in FY24, following a consistent increase in previous years. However, challenges remained due to procurement risks and implementation risks related to new regulations effective April 2024. Ind-Ra also maintained stable outlooks for other segments of the infrastructure sector, including transmission projects, toll roads, and sea ports, citing sustained revenue visibility and adequate liquidity conditions. The agency noted that there was no material impact of the Red Sea crisis on Indian trade as alternative routes were explored, supporting a steady outlook for the sea ports sector. Additionally, the agency kept a stable outlook on electric buses, highlighting the sector's adequate delivery track record and ongoing sponsor support despite some operational delays.

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