India Power Sector Enters Value Chain Reset Led By Transmission

10 Jul 2026 CW Team

Peak demand reached a record 271GW in May 2026 during a heatwave and the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) projects power demand to grow at six per cent compound annual growth rate to 2030. The International Energy Agency expects electricity consumption to rise at six point four per cent annually through 2030, driven by rising cooling demand that accounts for more than twenty per cent of incremental growth and by new high-load segments such as data centres and electrified transport. Industrial demand remains large.

The report highlights a transmission-led capex super-cycle and estimates India will need US$51 billion (bn) in transmission investment to evacuate 500GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 and 900GW by 2035-36. Timing is a constraint because generation assets take 12 to 18 months to build while transmission corridors require 36 to 48 months, increasing curtailment risk without inter-regional development. The grid lost 2,300 gigawatt hour (GWh) between May and December 2025 when mid-day solar surges exceeded absorption capacity.

Under the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS) Rs2.83 trillion (tn) has been sanctioned and 203 million (mn) smart meters are planned, supporting a turnaround. Aggregate technical and commercial losses have eased to fifteen per cent from twenty-two per cent in FY2021 and distribution companies (DISCOMs) reported a Rs25 billion (bn) profit in FY2025, while overdue payables have fallen below Rs500 billion (bn). Regulatory reforms such as the Draft National Electricity Policy 2026 and the Electricity (Amendment) Bill 2026 aim to shift the sector to market-based systems, and the brokerage said the next phase will depend on how quickly transmission and storage keep pace with demand.

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Macquarie Equity Research said India’s electricity system is entering a synchronised reset across generation, transmission and distribution, with transmission capital expenditure and energy storage central to the coming decade. The brokerage expects installed capacity to rise from 538 gigawatt (GW) today to 900GW by FY32E, with coal anchoring baseload stability at plant load factors above 65 per cent while renewables supply most incremental capacity. It added that 74GW of storage will be needed by 2032 to manage intermittency and meet evening peaks. Peak demand reached a record 271GW in May 2026 during a heatwave and the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) projects power demand to grow at six per cent compound annual growth rate to 2030. The International Energy Agency expects electricity consumption to rise at six point four per cent annually through 2030, driven by rising cooling demand that accounts for more than twenty per cent of incremental growth and by new high-load segments such as data centres and electrified transport. Industrial demand remains large. The report highlights a transmission-led capex super-cycle and estimates India will need US$51 billion (bn) in transmission investment to evacuate 500GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 and 900GW by 2035-36. Timing is a constraint because generation assets take 12 to 18 months to build while transmission corridors require 36 to 48 months, increasing curtailment risk without inter-regional development. The grid lost 2,300 gigawatt hour (GWh) between May and December 2025 when mid-day solar surges exceeded absorption capacity. Under the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS) Rs2.83 trillion (tn) has been sanctioned and 203 million (mn) smart meters are planned, supporting a turnaround. Aggregate technical and commercial losses have eased to fifteen per cent from twenty-two per cent in FY2021 and distribution companies (DISCOMs) reported a Rs25 billion (bn) profit in FY2025, while overdue payables have fallen below Rs500 billion (bn). Regulatory reforms such as the Draft National Electricity Policy 2026 and the Electricity (Amendment) Bill 2026 aim to shift the sector to market-based systems, and the brokerage said the next phase will depend on how quickly transmission and storage keep pace with demand.

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