Commercial real estate will outpace residential sales in FY23

CRISIL anticipates modest year-over-year volume growth of 3-8 percent for primary residential sales in the top eight cities in 2022-23 (FY23). Despite a decrease in homebuyers' purchasing power, sales of primary residences will rise. Due to an increase in interest rates and capital values, as well as a reversal of the stamp duty reduction in key states, affordability has suffered in FY23.

Despite a 6-10 per cent year-over-year increase in capital values across cities as a result of a significant increase in the cost of raw materials, the momentum of demand has continued. Between April and November, property registrations in Mumbai, including those for resale properties, increased by more than double year over year, albeit from a low base, while registrations in the rest of Maharashtra increased by 16 per cent year over year. Even better were sales for large builders. Six major listed developers saw a 70 per cent year-over-year increase in sales booked (on a volume basis) in the first half of the current fiscal year. New product launches nearly doubled year over year, albeit on a lower base than last year, when volume was affected by the second wave of COVID-19. Demand is expected to rise even more year over year in 2023-2024 (FY24); Except for the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), sales are expected to grow at a higher compound annual growth rate of 5 to 9 per cent in all cities over the next two fiscal years.

The portion of key six recorded engineers rose to 50-60 percent of generally dispatches in the beyond two monetary years, from sub 40 per cent, with the pattern liable to proceed. In FY23 and FY24, it is anticipated that launches will continue to rise gradually until they reach the pre-pandemic level of INR 200 million square feet (msf) annually. Additionally, completions are gaining traction. However, net leasing is anticipated to gradually increase in FY24, resulting in an increase of up to 100 basis points in occupancy. The credit profile of players rated by CRISIL Ratings is likely to remain stable despite a lower-than-anticipated leasing demand. As a result, real estate developers' leverage and credit profiles, which had improved following the recovery in FY22, should continue for the medium term. Over the past two financial years, the sample set of 11 large and listed developers has also benefited from strengthening capital structures through equity raise and asset monetisation of INR 180 million, which has helped them navigate the peak of the pandemic. Their debt-to-total assets ratio, which is a measure of leverage, will rise significantly from 42 per cent at the beginning of the pandemic to 21 per cent by March 2023 and 21 per cent by March 2024 due to this and strong sales momentum. Large developers will not be the only ones benefiting from the optimistic outlook.