India’s GDP contracts 7.3% in FY21: State Bank of India

27 May 2021 CW Team

State Bank of India (SBI), in its Ecowrap report, said on Tuesday that Indian GDP has possibly contracted less than estimated in the fiscal year 2021.

On the other hand, in February, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) estimated Asia's third-largest economy to have contracted by 8% in FY21. SBI now predicts India's economy may have contracted by 7.3%.

According to the SBI's statement in the report, based on the quarterly GDP numbers in FY21 and the entire FY21 GDP estimates, Q4GDP was expected to reveal a contraction of 1.1%. The GDP growth for Q4 would be near 1.3%, based on the forecasting by the SBI Nowcasting model. The expected GDP decline for the entire year is around -7.3%, earlier expected to be -7.4%.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release its provisional estimates of GDP for FY21 on May 31.

The report said the likely consequence of any upward bias in FY21 results in a collateral decline in FY22 GDP estimates. It further says the impact of the second wave of Covid-19 on the economy was limited compared to the first wave, now estimates that there may be a nominal loss of Rs 6 lakh crore in GDP during the Q1 of FY22 as compared to the loss of Rs 11 lakh crore during the Q1 FY21. The actual loss of GDP would be between Rs 4-4.5 lakh crore, and therefore, the real GDP growth would range between 10-15% during Q1 FY21. Further, it said that in the second wave, the health crisis has been overwhelming, and so, the impact of the second wave on GDP will be more from health channels than from mobility channels. The sequential momentum of leading indicators is low all the time.

Through the corporate results, SBI said that the growth in the March quarter of FY21 would be better than growth in the December quarter. The complete projection for the March quarter of FY21 depends on what extent the previous data will be revised by NSO.

Image Source

Also read: Forecasted GDP rate for FY22 drops to 9.2%: Care Ratings

Also read: FDIs in India rise 19% to $59.64 billion in FY21: Govt data

State Bank of India (SBI), in its Ecowrap report, said on Tuesday that Indian GDP has possibly contracted less than estimated in the fiscal year 2021. On the other hand, in February, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) estimated Asia's third-largest economy to have contracted by 8% in FY21. SBI now predicts India's economy may have contracted by 7.3%. According to the SBI's statement in the report, based on the quarterly GDP numbers in FY21 and the entire FY21 GDP estimates, Q4GDP was expected to reveal a contraction of 1.1%. The GDP growth for Q4 would be near 1.3%, based on the forecasting by the SBI Nowcasting model. The expected GDP decline for the entire year is around -7.3%, earlier expected to be -7.4%. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release its provisional estimates of GDP for FY21 on May 31. The report said the likely consequence of any upward bias in FY21 results in a collateral decline in FY22 GDP estimates. It further says the impact of the second wave of Covid-19 on the economy was limited compared to the first wave, now estimates that there may be a nominal loss of Rs 6 lakh crore in GDP during the Q1 of FY22 as compared to the loss of Rs 11 lakh crore during the Q1 FY21. The actual loss of GDP would be between Rs 4-4.5 lakh crore, and therefore, the real GDP growth would range between 10-15% during Q1 FY21. Further, it said that in the second wave, the health crisis has been overwhelming, and so, the impact of the second wave on GDP will be more from health channels than from mobility channels. The sequential momentum of leading indicators is low all the time. Through the corporate results, SBI said that the growth in the March quarter of FY21 would be better than growth in the December quarter. The complete projection for the March quarter of FY21 depends on what extent the previous data will be revised by NSO. Image Source Also read: Forecasted GDP rate for FY22 drops to 9.2%: Care Ratings Also read: FDIs in India rise 19% to $59.64 billion in FY21: Govt data

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