IMF’s revised forecast may look rosier than it is
ECONOMY & POLICY

IMF’s revised forecast may look rosier than it is

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the Indian economy will witness a strong rebound and grow as much as 11.5% on-year in FY22, revising its earlier forecast of an 8.8% expansion.

On the one hand, India is set to emerge as the only major nation to record double-digit growth and reclaim the status of the world's fastest-growing economy. India's real gross domestic product (GDP) shrank as much as 8% in FY21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and in FY23, the economy will likely grow 6.8%. On the other, pre-Covid levels are not expected until 2025, IMF cautions.

Overview of World Economic Outlook Projections


Year-Over-Year (% change) Projections

Nation

2021

2022

USA

5.1

2.5

Germany

3.5

3.1

UK

4.5

5.0

China

8.1

5.6

India

11.5

6.8

For India, data and forecasts have been presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onwards is based on GDP at market prices with the fiscal year as 2011/12.

Source: IMF

Last October, the IMF had projected an 8.8% GDP growth for India in FY22, the highest globally. For the current fiscal, however, the IMF had forecast a record 10.3% contraction. However, in an interview to NDTV channel, Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist at IMF, cautioned against reading too much into the growth over a period of negative growth, and urged the factoring-in of the fact that a second coronavirus wave has not hit India. She also said the figure does not reveal the distress in the informal sector. Cumulatively by the end of 2022, India is 9% below its pre-pandemic projected level, Gopinath said.

In its latest World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF predicted that China would grow 8.1% in 2021, followed by Spain (5.9%) and France (5.5%). China, which was the only major country to register a 2.3% growth rate in 2020, will expand 5.6% in 2022, the IMF said.


4th Indian Cement Review Conference 2021

17-18 March 

Click for event info


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the Indian economy will witness a strong rebound and grow as much as 11.5% on-year in FY22, revising its earlier forecast of an 8.8% expansion. On the one hand, India is set to emerge as the only major nation to record double-digit growth and reclaim the status of the world's fastest-growing economy. India's real gross domestic product (GDP) shrank as much as 8% in FY21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and in FY23, the economy will likely grow 6.8%. On the other, pre-Covid levels are not expected until 2025, IMF cautions.Overview of World Economic Outlook ProjectionsYear-Over-Year (% change) ProjectionsNation20212022USA5.12.5Germany3.53.1UK4.55.0China8.15.6India11.56.8For India, data and forecasts have been presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onwards is based on GDP at market prices with the fiscal year as 2011/12. Source: IMF Last October, the IMF had projected an 8.8% GDP growth for India in FY22, the highest globally. For the current fiscal, however, the IMF had forecast a record 10.3% contraction. However, in an interview to NDTV channel, Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist at IMF, cautioned against reading too much into the growth over a period of negative growth, and urged the factoring-in of the fact that a second coronavirus wave has not hit India. She also said the figure does not reveal the distress in the informal sector. Cumulatively by the end of 2022, India is 9% below its pre-pandemic projected level, Gopinath said. In its latest World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF predicted that China would grow 8.1% in 2021, followed by Spain (5.9%) and France (5.5%). China, which was the only major country to register a 2.3% growth rate in 2020, will expand 5.6% in 2022, the IMF said.4th Indian Cement Review Conference 202117-18 March Click for event info

Next Story
Resources

Skyview by Empyrean is Making Benchmarks in the Indian Ropeway Industry

FIL Industries Private Limited, the parent company of Empyrean Skyview Projects that pioneered ropeway mobility solutions in India with Jammu’s Skyview Gondola, is currently developing the Dehradun-Mussoorie ropeway and is on track to complete Phase I by September 2026. The ropeway is set to be India’s longest passenger aerial monocable covering 5.8 km between the foothills of Dehradun in Purkulgam and MDDA taxi stand in the hills of Mussoorie in just under 20 minutes. The firm pioneered green mobility solutions in India with the development of the flagship Skyview Gondola in Jam..

Next Story
Technology

Creativity is for Humans, Productivity is for Robots!

On most construction sites, the rhythm of progress is measured by the clang of steel, the hum of machinery and the sweat of thousands. But increasingly, new sounds are entering the mix: the quiet efficiency of algorithms, the hum of drones overhead, and the precision of robotic arms at work. Behind the concrete and cables, an invisible force is taking hold: data. It is turning blueprints into living simulations, managing fleets of machines, and helping engineers make decisions before a single brick is laid. This is not the construction of tomorrow; it is the architecture of today – built on ..

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

Bhartiya Urban Unveils ‘Bhartiya Converge’ GCC Enablement Platform

Bhartiya Urban has launched Bhartiya Converge, its latest business venture designed to become India’s premier platform for enabling Global Capability Centres (GCCs). The initiative offers an integrated ecosystem aimed at helping global clients gain a competitive edge in today’s rapidly evolving business environment. Focused on enhancing turnaround time and operational efficiencies, the company seeks to deliver better business outcomes powered by top-tier talent. Bhartiya Converge presents a customised and integrated suite of microservices that addresses the nuanced and evolving operational..

Advertisement

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Talk to us?