- Home
- Infrastructure Urban
- ECONOMY & POLICY
- IMF’s revised forecast may look rosier than it is
IMF’s revised forecast may look rosier than it is
On the one hand, India is set to emerge as the only major nation to record double-digit growth and reclaim the status of the world's fastest-growing economy. India's real gross domestic product (GDP) shrank as much as 8% in FY21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and in FY23, the economy will likely grow 6.8%. On the other, pre-Covid levels are not expected until 2025, IMF cautions.
Overview of World Economic Outlook Projections | ||
Year-Over-Year (% change) Projections | ||
Nation | 2021 | 2022 |
USA | 5.1 | 2.5 |
Germany | 3.5 | 3.1 |
UK | 4.5 | 5.0 |
China | 8.1 | 5.6 |
India | 11.5 | 6.8 |
For India, data and forecasts have been presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onwards is based on GDP at market prices with the fiscal year as 2011/12. |
Source: IMF
Last October, the IMF had projected an 8.8% GDP growth for India in FY22, the highest globally. For the current fiscal, however, the IMF had forecast a record 10.3% contraction. However, in an interview to NDTV channel, Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist at IMF, cautioned against reading too much into the growth over a period of negative growth, and urged the factoring-in of the fact that a second coronavirus wave has not hit India. She also said the figure does not reveal the distress in the informal sector. Cumulatively by the end of 2022, India is 9% below its pre-pandemic projected level, Gopinath said.
In its latest World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF predicted that China would grow 8.1% in 2021, followed by Spain (5.9%) and France (5.5%). China, which was the only major country to register a 2.3% growth rate in 2020, will expand 5.6% in 2022, the IMF said.
4th Indian Cement Review Conference 2021
17-18 March
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the Indian economy will witness a strong rebound and grow as much as 11.5% on-year in FY22, revising its earlier forecast of an 8.8% expansion. On the one hand, India is set to emerge as the only major nation to record double-digit growth and reclaim the status of the world's fastest-growing economy. India's real gross domestic product (GDP) shrank as much as 8% in FY21 due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and in FY23, the economy will likely grow 6.8%. On the other, pre-Covid levels are not expected until 2025, IMF cautions.Overview of World Economic Outlook ProjectionsYear-Over-Year (% change) ProjectionsNation20212022USA5.12.5Germany3.53.1UK4.55.0China8.15.6India11.56.8For India, data and forecasts have been presented on a fiscal year basis and GDP from 2011 onwards is based on GDP at market prices with the fiscal year as 2011/12. Source: IMF Last October, the IMF had projected an 8.8% GDP growth for India in FY22, the highest globally. For the current fiscal, however, the IMF had forecast a record 10.3% contraction. However, in an interview to NDTV channel, Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist at IMF, cautioned against reading too much into the growth over a period of negative growth, and urged the factoring-in of the fact that a second coronavirus wave has not hit India. She also said the figure does not reveal the distress in the informal sector. Cumulatively by the end of 2022, India is 9% below its pre-pandemic projected level, Gopinath said. In its latest World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF predicted that China would grow 8.1% in 2021, followed by Spain (5.9%) and France (5.5%). China, which was the only major country to register a 2.3% growth rate in 2020, will expand 5.6% in 2022, the IMF said.4th Indian Cement Review Conference 202117-18 March Click for event info