India-US Trade Talks Near First Phase Deal

04 Jun 2026 CW Team

India and the US are engaged in trade negotiations from 2-4 June 2026 to advance the first phase of a proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement covering goods, services and strategic supply chains. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently said 99 per cent of discussions had been completed, with only a few contentious issues remaining.

A Rubix Data Sciences analysis of India-US trade from FY2020 to FY2026 shows that India’s merchandise exports to the US grew at a 9 per cent CAGR, but remained steady at around USD 87 billion in FY2025 and FY2026. Imports from the US grew at a 7 per cent CAGR, reaching nearly USD 53 billion in FY2026, up 17 per cent year-on-year.

India’s trade surplus with the US almost doubled from USD 17 billion in FY2020 to USD 34 billion in FY2026, though it declined by nearly 17 per cent in FY2026 due to faster import growth. Bilateral goods trade increased from USD 89 billion to USD 141 billion, marking a 1.6 times rise over the period.

The export basket has shifted towards high-technology products, led by smartphone manufacturing. Telecom equipment, including smartphones, rose from 1 per cent of exports in FY2020 to 23 per cent in FY2026. Smartphone exports to the US reached USD 19.7 billion in FY2026, growing 86 per cent year-on-year.

India’s imports from the US have become more concentrated in energy and strategic inputs. Crude oil rose from 14 per cent to 18 per cent of imports, while coal increased from 4 per cent to 6 per cent. Electrical integrated circuits grew from 1 per cent to 5 per cent, reflecting rising demand from India’s electronics manufacturing sector.

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