Middle East Outages Tighten Aluminium Market Near Term

25 Jun 2026 CW Team

Goldman Sachs research said persistent outages in the Middle East will keep the global aluminium market tight in the near term, even as expanding supply from Indonesia and China limits upside beyond next year. The bank assessed that damaged potlines and gradual restarts mean production losses will extend into 2027. The report used kilotonne (kt) and million tonnes (mn t) measures to quantify adjustments.

The bank cut Middle East output assumptions by 660 kt in 2026 and by one mn t in 2027, assuming restarts in early 2027 rather than the second half of 2026. It now expects Bahrain to recover to pre?conflict levels by mid?2027 and the UAE by end?2027. The revisions produce a projected 720 kt deficit in 2026 and a 590 kt surplus in 2027, compared with a prior 570 kt deficit and a 1.3 mn t surplus.

Goldman Sachs said Indonesia and China will be the main sources of offsetting supply. It raised Indonesian primary aluminium forecasts to 1.7 mn t in 2026 and 2.9 mn t in 2027 from prior 1.6 mn t and 2.5 mn t, citing faster ramps at projects including Adaro, Taijing Morowali and Juwan Weda Bay and year?to?date output gains of about 89 per cent. For China it lifted 2026 and 2027 production forecasts to 45.6 mn t and 46.3 mn t as margins support restarts and elevated output.

On prices the bank nudged its Q3 2026 and average 2027 London Metal Exchange aluminium forecasts to $3,300 and $2,950 per tonne from $3,200 and $2,750 per tonne, while remaining below forward curves. It closed a short position into December 2026 and rolled to a short for December 2027 to express its structural surplus view. The report said risks are two?sided, with a slower Middle East restart keeping 2027 near $3,250 per tonne and a faster restart lifting the surplus toward 1.2 mn t and pushing prices toward $2,750 per tonne.

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