Take hard decisions quickly: ICRA
ECONOMY & POLICY

Take hard decisions quickly: ICRA

Political uncertainty is finally behind us. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won a decisive mandate, clearing the path for a second term for Narendra Modi. This also means continuity of policy and opportunity to push tougher reforms particularly – land and labour.

Challenges and outlook
The economy is going through a cyclical downturn. The GDP growth in the second half of 2018-19 had fallen to ~6.5 per cent – below the trend rate of growth of India (7 per cent). Consumption demand, which was the bulwark of the economy, has weakened and private investment is yet to show signs of a pickup. We see monetary policy turning more growth supportive and expect 25 basis point rate cut in June policy.

Over the next quarters, the Indian economy should gradually recover from current lows. Benign inflation, low interest rates and income support to small farmers will also help growth.

As consumer demand improves gradually, capacity utilisation will increase and private investments in select sectors would inch up. But a material change in the private capex cycle is unlikely this fiscal due to ongoing deleveraging.

CRISIL base-case forecast sees GDP growth rising to 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020 from 7.0 per cent in fiscal 2019. It is premised on yet another spell of normal monsoon and average crude oil price at $65-70.

A below normal, or ill-distributed, monsoon, or a spike in oil prices, will dampen growth outlook.

Agenda for the government
That the new government would be well served to take following steps urgently:
  • Bite the bullet in the first year itself to reap rewards later. Take long-pending hard decisions in the first year itself. Create fiscal space for infra spending, privatisation, asset monetisation and generally unshackle funding in the economy.
  • Destress the financial sector, for faster credit growth - a) Speed up the resolution of asset quality problems for public sector banks. Non-performing assets of public sector banks are peaking out, yet they remain quite high at close to 10 per cent of advances. b) Improve their operational efficiency of public sector banks. c) resolve the stress in the Non-bank Finance Sector (NBFC).
  • Step up implementation of already announced reforms to fuel medium-term growth. Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Indian Bankruptcy Code (IBC) are works in progress, and they need to be streamlined further to reap full benefits.
  • Address farm distress by creating well-functioning markets, improving productivity and cutting waste. A timebound programme to achieve these needs to be communicated.
  • Take steps to enhance the competitiveness of India’s exports. If the US-China trade war continues for long, it could result in shift of production bases and restructuring of global supply chains. To gain from this, India needs to improve its investment attractiveness and competitiveness.
  • Land and labour reforms are tough nuts to crack, but must be done. The government should begin the process of creating census by taking on board all states and stakeholders. The same approach will come in handy to solve the power sector logjam.
  • To speed up employment generation, the government needs to focus on: a) policies that support manufacturing sectors with large employment-growth potential so that, despite slipping labour intensity, absolute employment continues to increase. Such sectors would include textiles, leather, gems and jewellery and construction. b) Labour-intensive services such as health and education. This will not only create jobs as health, education and construction are highly labour intensive, but also raise India’s growth potential by making the workforce healthy and skilled or educated. c) Preparing the youth for new job opportunities and skilling for newer forms of jobs that are created due to rapid adoption of technology.

ALSO READ:


Political uncertainty is finally behind us. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won a decisive mandate, clearing the path for a second term for Narendra Modi. This also means continuity of policy and opportunity to push tougher reforms particularly – land and labour.Challenges and outlookThe economy is going through a cyclical downturn. The GDP growth in the second half of 2018-19 had fallen to ~6.5 per cent – below the trend rate of growth of India (7 per cent). Consumption demand, which was the bulwark of the economy, has weakened and private investment is yet to show signs of a pickup. We see monetary policy turning more growth supportive and expect 25 basis point rate cut in June policy.Over the next quarters, the Indian economy should gradually recover from current lows. Benign inflation, low interest rates and income support to small farmers will also help growth.As consumer demand improves gradually, capacity utilisation will increase and private investments in select sectors would inch up. But a material change in the private capex cycle is unlikely this fiscal due to ongoing deleveraging.CRISIL base-case forecast sees GDP growth rising to 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020 from 7.0 per cent in fiscal 2019. It is premised on yet another spell of normal monsoon and average crude oil price at $65-70.A below normal, or ill-distributed, monsoon, or a spike in oil prices, will dampen growth outlook.Agenda for the governmentThat the new government would be well served to take following steps urgently:Bite the bullet in the first year itself to reap rewards later. Take long-pending hard decisions in the first year itself. Create fiscal space for infra spending, privatisation, asset monetisation and generally unshackle funding in the economy.Destress the financial sector, for faster credit growth - a) Speed up the resolution of asset quality problems for public sector banks. Non-performing assets of public sector banks are peaking out, yet they remain quite high at close to 10 per cent of advances. b) Improve their operational efficiency of public sector banks. c) resolve the stress in the Non-bank Finance Sector (NBFC).Step up implementation of already announced reforms to fuel medium-term growth. Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Indian Bankruptcy Code (IBC) are works in progress, and they need to be streamlined further to reap full benefits.Address farm distress by creating well-functioning markets, improving productivity and cutting waste. A timebound programme to achieve these needs to be communicated.Take steps to enhance the competitiveness of India’s exports. If the US-China trade war continues for long, it could result in shift of production bases and restructuring of global supply chains. To gain from this, India needs to improve its investment attractiveness and competitiveness.Land and labour reforms are tough nuts to crack, but must be done. The government should begin the process of creating census by taking on board all states and stakeholders. The same approach will come in handy to solve the power sector logjam.To speed up employment generation, the government needs to focus on: a) policies that support manufacturing sectors with large employment-growth potential so that, despite slipping labour intensity, absolute employment continues to increase. Such sectors would include textiles, leather, gems and jewellery and construction. b) Labour-intensive services such as health and education. This will not only create jobs as health, education and construction are highly labour intensive, but also raise India’s growth potential by making the workforce healthy and skilled or educated. c) Preparing the youth for new job opportunities and skilling for newer forms of jobs that are created due to rapid adoption of technology.ALSO READ:Strengthen overall economy: Realty expectation from the governmentICRA: Capital support, finalisation of pending bills needed in port sectorPower sector to government: Ease of private sector participation necessary

Next Story
Real Estate

MHADA Slashes EWS Home Prices in Thane Scheme

The Konkan Housing and Area Development Board (KHADB), a wing of the Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority (MHADA), has trimmed the sale price of 6,248 Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban) homes in Thane district and placed them on a first-come, first-served basis. In Shirgaon, the cost of 5,236 units has fallen by about Rs 0.14 million each, from roughly Rs 2.07 million to Rs 1.93 million, while in Khoni the price for 1,012 houses has been lowered by around Rs 0.10 million to about Rs 1.91 million apiece. KHADB chief officer Revati Gaikar said the cuts aim to help economi..

Next Story
Real Estate

Brigade Plans Rs 21 Bn South Chennai Housing Scheme

Brigade Enterprises has unveiled Brigade Morgan Heights, a residential development in South Chennai carrying a gross development value of about Rs 21 billion. Rising on a 14.7-acre plot along the Sholinganallur–Medavakkam corridor, the scheme will deliver roughly 2.2 million square feet of premium apartments across 1,250 two-, three- and four-BHK units, the largest spanning 2,599 square feet.Positioned just 150 metres from the forthcoming Classical Tamil Institute Metro Station, the site offers ten-minute road links to technology parks such as ELCOT, Wipro and Cognizant, enhancing its appeal..

Next Story
Infrastructure Urban

Saya, Lemon Tree To Run 336 Business Suites In Noida

NCR-based real estate developer Saya Group has partnered with Carnation Hotels Pvt Ltd, a subsidiary of Lemon Tree Hotels, to manage 336 fully serviced business suites in Greater Noida. The suites are located within Saya SouthX, a 3-acre mixed-use commercial development with a built-up area of around 68,000 square metres.Under the agreement, Lemon Tree Hotels will operate the suites—each averaging 62 square metres—spanning the 7th to 25th floors of the development. The collaboration aims to offer high-quality business accommodation tailored to the needs of working professionals, entreprene..

Advertisement

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Talk to us?