India’s coking coal imports are expected to rise nearly 42 per cent to 115 million tonnes (MT) by 2030, as the nation targets 300 MT of steel production capacity, according to the latest report by EY Parthenon in association with the Indian Steel Association (ISA).Titled India’s Coking Coal Strategy: Building Resilience through Innovation, Sustainability and Policy, the report highlighted that steel demand from infrastructure, construction and automotive sectors will drive coking coal needs, which account for 95 per cent of total consumption. Currently, imports stand at 81 MT in FY25, while total demand for coking coal is projected to grow 55 per cent to 135 MT by FY30 from 87 MT in FY25.Vinayak Vipul, Partner, Business Consulting, EY Parthenon, said, “India’s steel ambitions cannot be realised without addressing its heavy reliance on imported coking coal. While domestic production is projected to double by 2030, imports will remain crucial. This dependence makes the sector vulnerable to price volatility and supply chain disruptions. India must accelerate beneficiation to unlock the true value of its reserves, diversify sourcing, and invest in low-carbon steel technologies. Establishing a transparent pricing index and a national reserve will be key to balancing growth with resilience and sustainability.”Naveen Jindal, President of ISA, added, “India’s steel industry is entering a transformative era. Coking coal remains the backbone of steelmaking, and securing reliable, high-quality supply is essential for national growth. With resource security, technological innovation and clear policy support, India can build a stronger, globally competitive steel sector.”The report noted that India, the world’s second-largest steel producer, relies heavily on coking coal and is working towards self-sufficiency. The blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) route accounts for approximately 65 per cent of installed capacity and 58 per cent of actual production.Under the Atmanirbhar Coal Mission’s Mission Coking Coal, the government aims to scale domestic raw output to 140 MT by FY30—105 MT from Coal India and 35 MT from private allocations—while boosting washed coal capacity to 15 MT. Policy reforms, including 100 per cent FDI in mining, revenue-sharing auctions, and 20–30 per cent capital subsidies for washeries, are designed to reduce import dependence from around 90 per cent today to below 80 per cent by 2030, accelerate beneficiation, and enhance supply security.Rising coal use in steelmaking also contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 7–8 per cent globally and 12 per cent within India. This underscores the need for cleaner technologies and comprehensive decarbonisation efforts.The 2024 Green Steel Production Pathways report by EY recommends accelerating green hydrogen injection in blast furnaces, energy-efficiency upgrades, and carbon capture, alongside import strategies. The IEEFA warns that a “build now, decarbonise later” approach risks creating stranded investments, emphasising that adopting low-emission technologies today can save costs and strengthen India’s green steel ambitions.