Capex, connectivity and construction – India stays the course
ECONOMY & POLICY

Capex, connectivity and construction – India stays the course

Donald Trump may have turned the world upside down, but he has got our government working at a very desirable pace. The pace of reforms, in particular, has been refreshing: GST reforms; labour reforms; nuclear bill reform; PLI expansion; fast-tracking of FTAs; decriminalisation of minor busines...

Donald Trump may have turned the world upside down, but he has got our government working at a very desirable pace. The pace of reforms, in particular, has been refreshing: GST reforms; labour reforms; nuclear bill reform; PLI expansion; fast-tracking of FTAs; decriminalisation of minor business offences; mining reforms mandating exploration; defence manufacturing liberalisation with higher FDI limits and private-sector participation; ports, shipping and multimodal reforms to strengthen trade resilience; reclassification of limestone as a major mineral to boost cement capacity expansion; correction of the inverted duty structure to protect exporters from higher input costs; and more. At this rate, it appears that the tariff settlement issue may turn out to be an anti-climax.On the exports front, India seems to have adapted very quickly and diversified. Merchandise exports in November 2025 were $ 38.13 billion, up from $ 31.94 billion in November 2024 – a healthy 19.38 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase. Over the broader period of April to November 2025, cumulative merchandise exports amounted to $ 292.07 billion, up from $ 284.60 billion in the same period of April to November 2024, registering a growth of about 2.6 per cent. Even India’s exports to the US showed resilience – despite punitive tariffs of up to 50 per cent on many items – with exports growing by over 20 per cent YoY in November 2025.Central Public-Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) have shown strong momentum in capex during H1 and are expected to meet, or possibly even marginally exceed, their FY26 capex targets. The Government’s higher spending on capex led to a deficit of 55 per cent of the Budget target, with spending of ₹ 6.2 trillion during April to October FY26, compared to 42 per cent in the same period last year. At 3.1 per cent of GDP, India’s infrastructure capex of ₹ 11.2 trillion is still much lower than required, even as laid down in the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP). The US has spent an average of 3 per cent of GDP on infrastructure over the past three decades, while China spends 6.7 per cent. China’s investment in infrastructure is nearly 10 times that of India.Metro rail continues to remain a consistent commitment in urban infrastructure. Going forward into 2026, as per IMPACCT, a project intelligence platform, cities such as Mumbai, Noida, Navi Mumbai, Pune, Bhopal, Bengaluru, Lucknow, Indore, Nagpur and Gurugram have approvals to construct nearly 1,280 km – an enormous booster for construction activity, considering that just over 1,000 km are currently operational nationwide, while 613 km are under construction. In Mumbai alone, across all lines, daily ridership has already touched 1 million passengers with just 80 km operational. Delhi, with 390 km operational, ferries nearly 8 million passengers daily. These systems have significantly contributed to reducing vehicular pollution in cities. Metro construction has also inspired the broader tunnelling ecosystem, with tunnel-boring machines (TBMs) now being assembled in India. Our 4th Metro Rail Conference is scheduled for January 22, 2026, in Mumbai. Do register and attend to explore these opportunities.The greenfield ₹ 19,650 crore Navi Mumbai International Airport, spread over 2,866 acre with two parallel runways, opened last month and is being followed by another greenfield airport – the Noida International Airport at Jewar, Uttar Pradesh – under a phased development programme, with its first phase nearing completion at a cost of approximately ₹ 10,000 crore. These additions take the country’s airport count to 163, with plans to scale up to 350 by 2047. Our Infrastructure Today Airports Conclave will delve into these opportunities on March 12, 2026, in Mumbai.The year ahead will see public spending stay the course but infrastructure will demand that contractors systematise their approaches through technology adoption. Labour costs will rise but capital costs will remain favourable. Real-estate activity will intensify with launched projects breaking ground. Power and mining will attract capital. Cement will consolidate and prices will harden. Project management and cost-efficiency will remain key management mantras. Business opportunities will continue to shine. Stay constructive.

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