Indian retail sector needs 55 million sq ft of grade-A malls

23 Sep 2024 CW Team

In the first half of 2024, no new mall supply entered the market, leaving the country’s total grade-A mall inventory at 61 million square feet across the top eight cities. This translates to just 0.5 square feet of RSPC, a figure considerably lower than that of smaller nations such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Over the past eight years, the retail sector has seen an average of only 2.5 million square feet of grade-A mall space becoming operational annually, resulting in just 20 million square feet being added during this period, despite increasing consumer demand. This lack of supply has led to record-low vacancy rates in existing grade-A malls across major real estate markets.

Saurabh Shatdal, Managing Director of Capital Markets and Head of Retail at Cushman & Wakefield, stated that rising consumer confidence and increased discretionary spending underscore the sector's significant growth potential. He emphasised the need to address supply-side challenges and ensure the availability of high-quality retail spaces to fully capitalise on this growth.

The report also pointed out that the projected pipeline for grade-A retail mall projects totals only 18 million square feet for the 2024-2027 period. Additionally, the number of global brands entering India has surged, with the annual average rising from 12 pre-COVID to 25 by 2024. This presents an opportunity for Indian mall developers to deliver 9 to 11 million square feet per year over the next four to five years, which is 3.5 to 4.5 times the capacity added in the last eight years.

In the meantime, high streets and office-retail complexes (ORCs) are experiencing significant growth due to the continued scarcity of grade-A malls.

The Indian retail sector requires an additional 55 million square feet of grade-A mall space over the next four years to keep up with market demand, according to a recent report by Cushman & Wakefield. The report highlights that retail space per capita (RSPC) in India lags behind other South Asian countries, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, indicating vast potential for retail expansion. In the first half of 2024, no new mall supply entered the market, leaving the country’s total grade-A mall inventory at 61 million square feet across the top eight cities. This translates to just 0.5 square feet of RSPC, a figure considerably lower than that of smaller nations such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Over the past eight years, the retail sector has seen an average of only 2.5 million square feet of grade-A mall space becoming operational annually, resulting in just 20 million square feet being added during this period, despite increasing consumer demand. This lack of supply has led to record-low vacancy rates in existing grade-A malls across major real estate markets. Saurabh Shatdal, Managing Director of Capital Markets and Head of Retail at Cushman & Wakefield, stated that rising consumer confidence and increased discretionary spending underscore the sector's significant growth potential. He emphasised the need to address supply-side challenges and ensure the availability of high-quality retail spaces to fully capitalise on this growth. The report also pointed out that the projected pipeline for grade-A retail mall projects totals only 18 million square feet for the 2024-2027 period. Additionally, the number of global brands entering India has surged, with the annual average rising from 12 pre-COVID to 25 by 2024. This presents an opportunity for Indian mall developers to deliver 9 to 11 million square feet per year over the next four to five years, which is 3.5 to 4.5 times the capacity added in the last eight years. In the meantime, high streets and office-retail complexes (ORCs) are experiencing significant growth due to the continued scarcity of grade-A malls.

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