Gulf Tensions Threaten Bitumen Supply, Slow India's Road Projects

28 Mar 2026 CW Team

Ind-Ra said bituminous works account for eight to twelve per cent of costs in National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) hybrid-annuity model (HAM) projects and that a 20 per cent increase in bitumen prices could compress road engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) margins by 150 to 250 basis points. Imports rose to around 40 per cent of demand in FY21–FY26 and more than 95 per cent come from Gulf suppliers.

The reliance on imported bitumen is stronger for state and regional works, which often lack procurement flexibility and supply buffers. Domestic bitumen output depends on refinery crude throughput, so even modest crude inflow disruptions can reduce availability. The February to June peak construction season raises vulnerability as demand typically surges and inventories run low.

Imported bitumen is generally 20 to 25 per cent cheaper than domestic alternatives, but that advantage could evaporate if shipping routes are disrupted or crude prices climb. Many state projects lack inflation-linked payment mechanisms and have limited contingency, increasing exposure to cost overruns and margin erosion and possibly leading to time extensions or re-tendering. By contrast, National Highways Authority of India hybrid-annuity model projects have contingency buffers, fixed-price EPC contracts and sponsor support, which can contain impacts.

Ind-Ra estimated that a sustained 20 per cent increase in bitumen prices would increase overall project costs by 1.5 to 2.5 per cent and cautioned that prolonged disruptions could cause site-level shortages, delay pavement works and hinder timely utilisation of state budgets. The report warned that rising import dependence and global uncertainties represent a growing structural risk for India's infrastructure sector, particularly for state and regional road projects.

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) said Gulf geopolitical tensions threaten bitumen supply chains and could slow India's road construction pipeline, with state and regional projects most at risk. The agency argued that disruptions in shipping routes and higher crude prices could tighten supply and raise bitumen costs. Ind-Ra said bituminous works account for eight to twelve per cent of costs in National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) hybrid-annuity model (HAM) projects and that a 20 per cent increase in bitumen prices could compress road engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) margins by 150 to 250 basis points. Imports rose to around 40 per cent of demand in FY21–FY26 and more than 95 per cent come from Gulf suppliers. The reliance on imported bitumen is stronger for state and regional works, which often lack procurement flexibility and supply buffers. Domestic bitumen output depends on refinery crude throughput, so even modest crude inflow disruptions can reduce availability. The February to June peak construction season raises vulnerability as demand typically surges and inventories run low. Imported bitumen is generally 20 to 25 per cent cheaper than domestic alternatives, but that advantage could evaporate if shipping routes are disrupted or crude prices climb. Many state projects lack inflation-linked payment mechanisms and have limited contingency, increasing exposure to cost overruns and margin erosion and possibly leading to time extensions or re-tendering. By contrast, National Highways Authority of India hybrid-annuity model projects have contingency buffers, fixed-price EPC contracts and sponsor support, which can contain impacts. Ind-Ra estimated that a sustained 20 per cent increase in bitumen prices would increase overall project costs by 1.5 to 2.5 per cent and cautioned that prolonged disruptions could cause site-level shortages, delay pavement works and hinder timely utilisation of state budgets. The report warned that rising import dependence and global uncertainties represent a growing structural risk for India's infrastructure sector, particularly for state and regional road projects.

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