Subsea sector on track for $42 billion boom by 2027

14 Aug 2024 CW Team

Brazil is emerging as a powerhouse with a forecasted 18 % increase in expenditure, amounting to $6 billion for 2024, largely spurred by the exploration of its vast pre-salt reserves. Meanwhile, Norway is reviving its subsea endeavours, fueled by market conducive conditions and the integration of technologies such as the Subsea Hydraulic Power Unit and SWIFT?, a remotely operated tubing hanger tool that optimizes operations by eliminating the need for heavy topside equipment.

Sanwari Mahajan, an Analyst at Rystad Energy, emphasized the sector's resilience, stating, "The subsea market has rebounded robustly from the impacts of Covid-19, which caused a significant 20 %drop in expenditure in 2020. By 2021, the industry began to recover, with spending increasing by 5 %to reach $23 billion. Looking ahead, we anticipate steady growth in the subsea sector, fuelled by advancements in deepwater exploration and carbon capture and storage (CCS). This recovery highlights the industry's resilience and suggests a promising trajectory of consistent progress."

Deepwater operations are poised to dominate the sector, constituting 45 % of the market from 2024 to 2028, with significant projects like Barracuda Revitalization in Brazil and Johan Castberg in Norway making notable advancements. The ultra-deepwater segment is not far behind, expected to capture 35 % of the market, underscored by major floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) projects in Brazil and Guyana.

Key upcoming ultra-deepwater projects include Yellowtail, Tilapia, and Redtail in Guyana, alongside Buzios VIII, Buzios IX, Sepia, and Atapu in Brazil. These projects highlight the strategic shifts towards more sustainable and efficient operations in the sector.

In 2024, ExxonMobil's operations are anticipated to drive a significant increase in subsea tree installations, particularly in Guyana, following Equinor, which installed 17 %of the total subsea trees this year. TechnipFMC is poised to supply approximately 400 subsea trees between 2024 and 2029, focusing heavily on developments by ExxonMobil in Guyana and Petrobras in Brazil, while OneSubsea plans to deliver around 270 trees, with a significant portion destined for Brazilian waters.

The subsea market, encompassing components crucial for underwater exploration like subsea umbilical risers and flowlines (SURF), trees, and manifolds, is projected to experience a robust growth, with an expected 10 % compound annual growth rate from 2024 to 2027, totalling an investment of over $42 billion, according to Rystad Energy. The year 2024 alone is set to see cumulative spending hitting $32 billion, marking a 6.5 % increase from the previous year, predominantly driven by an uptick in deep and ultra-deepwater projects.Brazil is emerging as a powerhouse with a forecasted 18 % increase in expenditure, amounting to $6 billion for 2024, largely spurred by the exploration of its vast pre-salt reserves. Meanwhile, Norway is reviving its subsea endeavours, fueled by market conducive conditions and the integration of technologies such as the Subsea Hydraulic Power Unit and SWIFT?, a remotely operated tubing hanger tool that optimizes operations by eliminating the need for heavy topside equipment.Sanwari Mahajan, an Analyst at Rystad Energy, emphasized the sector's resilience, stating, The subsea market has rebounded robustly from the impacts of Covid-19, which caused a significant 20 %drop in expenditure in 2020. By 2021, the industry began to recover, with spending increasing by 5 %to reach $23 billion. Looking ahead, we anticipate steady growth in the subsea sector, fuelled by advancements in deepwater exploration and carbon capture and storage (CCS). This recovery highlights the industry's resilience and suggests a promising trajectory of consistent progress.Deepwater operations are poised to dominate the sector, constituting 45 % of the market from 2024 to 2028, with significant projects like Barracuda Revitalization in Brazil and Johan Castberg in Norway making notable advancements. The ultra-deepwater segment is not far behind, expected to capture 35 % of the market, underscored by major floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) projects in Brazil and Guyana.Key upcoming ultra-deepwater projects include Yellowtail, Tilapia, and Redtail in Guyana, alongside Buzios VIII, Buzios IX, Sepia, and Atapu in Brazil. These projects highlight the strategic shifts towards more sustainable and efficient operations in the sector.In 2024, ExxonMobil's operations are anticipated to drive a significant increase in subsea tree installations, particularly in Guyana, following Equinor, which installed 17 %of the total subsea trees this year. TechnipFMC is poised to supply approximately 400 subsea trees between 2024 and 2029, focusing heavily on developments by ExxonMobil in Guyana and Petrobras in Brazil, while OneSubsea plans to deliver around 270 trees, with a significant portion destined for Brazilian waters.

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