Oil Tops $100 as Strait Disruptions Hit Supply

17 Mar 2026 CW Team

Early March incidents included a Thai-registered bulk carrier bound for Kandla being struck and abandoned, and explosive-laden boats setting two tankers ablaze near Iraqi waters, forcing some oil terminals to suspend operations. Brent crude has jumped by about 30–40 per cent from around $72 per barrel to above $100, after briefly touching $119, and Iran has warned prices could reach $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates. Markets have been roiled as participants reassess shipping routes and insurance costs.

Energy disruptions have spread to gas markets as European natural gas futures climbed toward €60 per megawatt-hour amid uncertainty over liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar. About 13 million barrels per day, roughly 31 per cent of seaborne oil shipments, transit the strait along with a large share of global LNG, allowing brief disruption to ripple across markets. Market participants are monitoring shipping routes and supply chains for further volatility.

In India the crisis has tightened supplies of liquefied petroleum gas, which the country consumes at about 31.3 mn t annually with 62 per cent imported, much via the strait. The hospitality sector has reported cylinder shortages in several cities and industry estimates indicate 70–75 per cent of restaurants rely on LPG, with sustained disruption potentially costing the sector Rs 12–13 bn per day. The government said refineries have raised LPG production by around 25 per cent and household consumers have been prioritised, booking intervals were extended from 21 to 25 days and a committee of oil company executives will review allocations. Authorities are also exploring alternative suppliers and have expanded crude sourcing from 27 to about 40 countries, with two cargoes of crude oil and two LNG shipments rerouted to India.

The United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on 28 February, prompting retaliatory attacks and severe disruption to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway between Iran and Oman carries roughly one fifth of global oil and gas shipments, making it a critical energy chokepoint. Iran has restricted passage for vessels linked to the United States, Europe and Israel while allowing limited movement for ships deemed neutral. Early March incidents included a Thai-registered bulk carrier bound for Kandla being struck and abandoned, and explosive-laden boats setting two tankers ablaze near Iraqi waters, forcing some oil terminals to suspend operations. Brent crude has jumped by about 30–40 per cent from around $72 per barrel to above $100, after briefly touching $119, and Iran has warned prices could reach $200 per barrel if the conflict escalates. Markets have been roiled as participants reassess shipping routes and insurance costs. Energy disruptions have spread to gas markets as European natural gas futures climbed toward €60 per megawatt-hour amid uncertainty over liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar. About 13 million barrels per day, roughly 31 per cent of seaborne oil shipments, transit the strait along with a large share of global LNG, allowing brief disruption to ripple across markets. Market participants are monitoring shipping routes and supply chains for further volatility. In India the crisis has tightened supplies of liquefied petroleum gas, which the country consumes at about 31.3 mn t annually with 62 per cent imported, much via the strait. The hospitality sector has reported cylinder shortages in several cities and industry estimates indicate 70–75 per cent of restaurants rely on LPG, with sustained disruption potentially costing the sector Rs 12–13 bn per day. The government said refineries have raised LPG production by around 25 per cent and household consumers have been prioritised, booking intervals were extended from 21 to 25 days and a committee of oil company executives will review allocations. Authorities are also exploring alternative suppliers and have expanded crude sourcing from 27 to about 40 countries, with two cargoes of crude oil and two LNG shipments rerouted to India.

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