FY 2022 GDP expected to grow 11-11.2%: CARE Ratings

GDP growth in FY22 is expected to be high due to two factors:

The first is the low base effect of negative growth in FY21. This is significant because while the base effect provides a boost to the GDP numbers, it is not that impressive when compared with FY20.

The second is due to the recovery which has taken place in the economy following the lockdown that was followed by the unlock process which has opened all sectors.

Recovery is broad-based across sectors but at varying speeds, as the services sector in particular still operates with significant restrictions which look unlikely to be fully eased through the first half of FY22. The recovery in the economy will also be aided by the vaccination drive which has been witnessed in the country and the sustained pace of vaccination and coverage of more age-groups is required to speed up the process.

Although the recent surge in Covid-19 cases in the country has raised the possibility of potential restrictions that are in place in several business centres, they are expected to be less potent than those in FY21.

Based on perspectives of various sectors that CARE Ratings covers separately, the GVA and GDP forecasts presented here are based on their inclusions in these calculations. The forecasts have used the CSO estimate for FY21 which is -8.0% as the base for estimation purposes. CARE Ratings’ forecast for FY21 still stands at -7.8%. However, this exercise uses CSO as the base to be aligned with the official estimate. It is believed that the final forecast may not change very significantly and would vary by not more than 0.2 - 0.3%.

Read the full CARE Ratings report here.