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IGL Rises After CNG Price Hike; Citi Sees Upside Amid Margin Pressure
ECONOMY & POLICY

IGL Rises After CNG Price Hike; Citi Sees Upside Amid Margin Pressure

Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL) shares rose after the company raised compressed natural gas in Delhi, lifting investor sentiment in morning trade. The stock advanced by two per cent and was trading at Rs 151.10, supported by the price revision announced for retail customers. The move followed accumulated pressure on distributor margins after sustained increases in global gas prices.

The distributor increased CNG by Rs three point eight nine per kilogram (kg) to Rs 86.98 per kg from Rs 83.09, effective from August 29, with the stated aim of partly offsetting a sharp rise in imported liquefied natural gas costs. The firm said the revision was calibrated to balance affordability and cost recovery and was not expected to materially dent volume growth. The hike equated to nearly five per cent on the retail rate.

Citi maintained a buy rating on IGL with a target of Rs 180, implying around 22 per cent upside from the prior close, and judged the retail increase as unlikely to meaningfully affect volumes. The brokerage estimated that the revision should lift blended realisations by around Rs one point eight per standard cubic metre (scm) and could help arrest steady margin erosion after EBITDA fell to a multi?year low of Rs three point four per scm in the first quarter of FY27.

Analysts noted that while the hike will provide partial relief, it may not fully restore prior margin levels and some pressure is likely to persist. Independent analysis indicated an improvement of only around Rs one point two to one point three per scm, suggesting further increases could be required. Citi also flagged higher spot LNG prices and disruption to contracted supplies from Qatar as risks for city gas distributors.

The brokerage observed that IGL and peers had lagged in passing higher costs and that since reductions in allocation of cheaper APM gas from October 2024 distributors have implemented cumulative CNG increases of around 15-16 per cent. The company said consumers had been largely insulated until the latest revision and cited much larger global shocks, with Europe TTF prices up about 105 per cent and Asian JKM LNG up roughly 113 per cent since late February. Management said it would continue to optimise sourcing to keep CNG competitive against alternatives.

Indraprastha Gas Ltd (IGL) shares rose after the company raised compressed natural gas in Delhi, lifting investor sentiment in morning trade. The stock advanced by two per cent and was trading at Rs 151.10, supported by the price revision announced for retail customers. The move followed accumulated pressure on distributor margins after sustained increases in global gas prices. The distributor increased CNG by Rs three point eight nine per kilogram (kg) to Rs 86.98 per kg from Rs 83.09, effective from August 29, with the stated aim of partly offsetting a sharp rise in imported liquefied natural gas costs. The firm said the revision was calibrated to balance affordability and cost recovery and was not expected to materially dent volume growth. The hike equated to nearly five per cent on the retail rate. Citi maintained a buy rating on IGL with a target of Rs 180, implying around 22 per cent upside from the prior close, and judged the retail increase as unlikely to meaningfully affect volumes. The brokerage estimated that the revision should lift blended realisations by around Rs one point eight per standard cubic metre (scm) and could help arrest steady margin erosion after EBITDA fell to a multi?year low of Rs three point four per scm in the first quarter of FY27. Analysts noted that while the hike will provide partial relief, it may not fully restore prior margin levels and some pressure is likely to persist. Independent analysis indicated an improvement of only around Rs one point two to one point three per scm, suggesting further increases could be required. Citi also flagged higher spot LNG prices and disruption to contracted supplies from Qatar as risks for city gas distributors. The brokerage observed that IGL and peers had lagged in passing higher costs and that since reductions in allocation of cheaper APM gas from October 2024 distributors have implemented cumulative CNG increases of around 15-16 per cent. The company said consumers had been largely insulated until the latest revision and cited much larger global shocks, with Europe TTF prices up about 105 per cent and Asian JKM LNG up roughly 113 per cent since late February. Management said it would continue to optimise sourcing to keep CNG competitive against alternatives.

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