China's Steel Sector Is Softening, but With Resilience
Steel

China's Steel Sector Is Softening, but With Resilience

There are two ways of looking at the 1.7% decline in China's steel output last year.The first is that it confirms that the world's largest producer of the key industrial metal is now in an established downtrend, and further weakness is likely this year. The second is that the steel industry is actually remarkably resilient in the face of major economic challenges, and that output has been essentially flat at extremely strong levels for the past five years. Both are essentially factual, and reflect the classic glass half-full or half-empty dilemma. On the half-empty side of the ledger is the fact that China's steel production peaked at 1.065 billion metric tons in 2020, and has trended lower since then, with 2024 output coming in at 1.005 billion tons. But another way to look at China's steel output is that it has been within a 70 million ton range between 2019 and 2024, which is actually quite a stable performance. Perhaps the best way to characterise China's steel production is that it likely has peaked, but the decline so far has been gentle, and output remains relatively high despite the well-publicised struggles of the world's second-biggest economy since the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to other markets, the answer remains unclear and subject to factors yet to come into play, chief among them what trade tariffs are put in place by the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who resumed the office . It's also uncertain as to whether 2025 is the year China's struggling residential property sector gets back on its feet, or whether it remains hostage to weak developer balance sheets and consumer wariness. A third factor is what will happen to China's steel exports in 2025, after they hit a nine-year high of 110.72 million tons in 2024. This was up 22.7%, or just over 20 million tons, from the previous year, with the increase helping to offset some loss of domestic consumption for steel mills. The volume of Chinese steel hitting global markets has led to some consternation among countries such as India, which is trying to boost the pace of expansion of its own steel sector. This raises the possibility that China may find it harder to increase steel exports in 2025.But it is worth noting that not all importing countries are opposed to buying more steel from China, especially those without a domestic steel sector. The best-case scenario for China's steel sector this year is one where trade tariffs aren't too punitive, the domestic economy continues to regain momentum and construction activity stabilises, or perhaps even increases. Under such a scenario, the best outcome for China's steel production would be steady output around 1 billion tons. This also means that China's demand for iron ore is likely to remain steady as well, although it may ease from the record high of 1.24 billion tons in 2024.

There are two ways of looking at the 1.7% decline in China's steel output last year.The first is that it confirms that the world's largest producer of the key industrial metal is now in an established downtrend, and further weakness is likely this year. The second is that the steel industry is actually remarkably resilient in the face of major economic challenges, and that output has been essentially flat at extremely strong levels for the past five years. Both are essentially factual, and reflect the classic glass half-full or half-empty dilemma. On the half-empty side of the ledger is the fact that China's steel production peaked at 1.065 billion metric tons in 2020, and has trended lower since then, with 2024 output coming in at 1.005 billion tons. But another way to look at China's steel output is that it has been within a 70 million ton range between 2019 and 2024, which is actually quite a stable performance. Perhaps the best way to characterise China's steel production is that it likely has peaked, but the decline so far has been gentle, and output remains relatively high despite the well-publicised struggles of the world's second-biggest economy since the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to other markets, the answer remains unclear and subject to factors yet to come into play, chief among them what trade tariffs are put in place by the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, who resumed the office . It's also uncertain as to whether 2025 is the year China's struggling residential property sector gets back on its feet, or whether it remains hostage to weak developer balance sheets and consumer wariness. A third factor is what will happen to China's steel exports in 2025, after they hit a nine-year high of 110.72 million tons in 2024. This was up 22.7%, or just over 20 million tons, from the previous year, with the increase helping to offset some loss of domestic consumption for steel mills. The volume of Chinese steel hitting global markets has led to some consternation among countries such as India, which is trying to boost the pace of expansion of its own steel sector. This raises the possibility that China may find it harder to increase steel exports in 2025.But it is worth noting that not all importing countries are opposed to buying more steel from China, especially those without a domestic steel sector. The best-case scenario for China's steel sector this year is one where trade tariffs aren't too punitive, the domestic economy continues to regain momentum and construction activity stabilises, or perhaps even increases. Under such a scenario, the best outcome for China's steel production would be steady output around 1 billion tons. This also means that China's demand for iron ore is likely to remain steady as well, although it may ease from the record high of 1.24 billion tons in 2024.

Next Story
Infrastructure Transport

Metro Line 2B Phase 1 to Boost Realty in Mumbai’s Eastern Suburbs

Mumbai’s real estate sector is set for a major boost as Phase 1 of Metro Line 2B, between Mandale and Diamond Garden, nears completion. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) has confirmed that mandatory rectifications are done, and inspections by the Commissioner of Metro Railway Safety (CMRS) have been carried out. The 5.39-km stretch with five stations forms part of the larger DN Nagar–Mandale corridor, designed to ease congestion and improve east–west connectivity. Passenger operations are expected by December 2025, with the full line slated for 2027. ..

Next Story
Resources

WattPower wins Best Inverter award at Global Solar Expo 2025

WattPower, a leading renewable energy solutions provider, has won the award for “Best Inverter in the Utility Segment” at the Global Solar Expo 2025. The recognition underscores the company’s commitment to delivering reliable, high-performance and future-ready solar solutions for large-scale projects. At the forefront of utility-scale solar, WattPower manufactures advanced string inverters that directly feed power into the Indian grid. With robust technology, high-quality components and comprehensive product lifecycle support, its solutions stand among the most sophisticated in the ..

Next Story
Real Estate

Awfis delivers 67,000 sq. ft. innovation hub for eBay in Bengaluru

Awfis Space Solutions, India’s largest flexible workspace provider and the first publicly listed workspace solutions platform, has partnered with eBay to establish a 67,000 sq. ft. innovation hub at Embassy Tech Village, Bengaluru. The mandate covers design, build and management of the new office, which will act as a strategic hub supporting diverse functions and accelerating eBay’s AI-first commerce strategy. The centre will focus on artificial intelligence, engineering, product development and applied research, strengthening eBay’s growth in India. Embassy Tech Village, North Beng..

Advertisement

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Get daily newsletters around different themes from Construction world.

STAY CONNECTED

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Talk to us?