Crisil predicts 1-3% drop in cement prices despite strong demand

28 Jun 2023 CW Team

The increase in prices was primarily due to disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by a sharp rise in input costs, particularly for thermal coal. The situation was further exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the current trend is expected to reverse due to intensified competition and a decrease in input costs.

Since the beginning of 2023, there has been a moderation in prices, attributed to the gradual decline in energy costs and the efforts of manufacturers to gain market share during the seasonally strong fourth quarter. Sequentially, prices fell by an average of 1% to Rs 388 per bag in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year, despite manufacturers holding high-cost inventory. However, prices remained elevated compared to the previous year.

The increased competitive intensity is evident from the fact that, for the first time in several years, there were no price hikes before the monsoon season in April and May of this fiscal year, despite steady demand. The top five players in the market accounted for a volume share of 55% in the last fiscal year, compared to 49% before the Covid-19 pandemic, indicating their efforts to improve their market share.

Hetal Gandhi, the director of Research at Crisil Market Intelligence and Analytics, stated, "The company anticipates strong year-on-year cement demand growth of 8-10% this fiscal year, which is a pre-election year. However, this growth is not expected to drive prices up. On the contrary, prices are projected to decline by 2% year-on-year to Rs 382-385 per bag, primarily due to relatively moderate growth in the trade segment."

The situation regarding input costs also favors lower prices. Australian coal prices experienced a decline of 10% and 36% quarter-on-quarter in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal year 2023, respectively, after reaching multi-year highs in August and September 2022.

Also read:
UltraTech tops 2023 sustainability rankings as no. 1 cement
Long-lasting effects of refractory bricks

Your next big infra connection is waiting at RAHSTA 2025 – Asia’s Biggest Roads & Highways Expo, Jio World Convention Centre, Mumbai. Don’t miss out!

Cement prices will experience a decline of 1-3% during this fiscal year. This comes after a period of significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% over the past four years, leading to a new all-time high of Rs 391 per 50 kg bag in the previous fiscal year. The increase in prices was primarily due to disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by a sharp rise in input costs, particularly for thermal coal. The situation was further exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. However, the current trend is expected to reverse due to intensified competition and a decrease in input costs. Since the beginning of 2023, there has been a moderation in prices, attributed to the gradual decline in energy costs and the efforts of manufacturers to gain market share during the seasonally strong fourth quarter. Sequentially, prices fell by an average of 1% to Rs 388 per bag in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year, despite manufacturers holding high-cost inventory. However, prices remained elevated compared to the previous year. The increased competitive intensity is evident from the fact that, for the first time in several years, there were no price hikes before the monsoon season in April and May of this fiscal year, despite steady demand. The top five players in the market accounted for a volume share of 55% in the last fiscal year, compared to 49% before the Covid-19 pandemic, indicating their efforts to improve their market share. Hetal Gandhi, the director of Research at Crisil Market Intelligence and Analytics, stated, The company anticipates strong year-on-year cement demand growth of 8-10% this fiscal year, which is a pre-election year. However, this growth is not expected to drive prices up. On the contrary, prices are projected to decline by 2% year-on-year to Rs 382-385 per bag, primarily due to relatively moderate growth in the trade segment. The situation regarding input costs also favors lower prices. Australian coal prices experienced a decline of 10% and 36% quarter-on-quarter in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal year 2023, respectively, after reaching multi-year highs in August and September 2022. Also read: UltraTech tops 2023 sustainability rankings as no. 1 cement Long-lasting effects of refractory bricks

Infrastructure Urban

08 Sep 2025

DRDO Transfers Key Defence Materials Tech to Industry

The Defence Metallurgical Research Laboratory (DMRL) of DRDO in Hyderabad has transferred three advanced indigenous materials technologies to leading Indian industry partners, marking a major step towards self-reliance in strategic defence manufacturing. The Licensing Agreement for Transfer of Technology (LAToT) documents were handed over by Dr Samir V Kamat, Secretary of Defence R&D and Chairman of DRDO, at a ceremony held at DMRL on 30 August 2025.The transferred technologies include:High-Strength Radomes: Transferred to BHEL, Jagdishpur, this technology enables the manufacture of high-p..

Infrastructure Energy

08 Sep 2025

Coal Ministry Honours Top Mines for Safety and Sustainability

The Ministry of Coal hosted the Star Rating Award Ceremony in Mumbai to recognise outstanding coal and lignite mines for their achievements in safety, environmental responsibility, scientific operations, and community welfare. Union Minister of Coal and Mines Shri G. Kishan Reddy, accompanied by Minister of State Shri Satish Chandra Dubey and Secretary Shri Vikram Dev Dutt, presented the accolades.The awards celebrate mines that have demonstrated excellence across key parameters such as safety, productivity, scientific mining, environmental stewardship, and socio-economic impact. The Minister ..

Infrastructure Urban

08 Sep 2025

Modi Highlights Decade of Bold Economic Reforms

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi reaffirmed the government’s steadfast commitment to economic reforms over the past decade, highlighting transformative measures that have redefined India’s fiscal structure and enhanced its global economic position.Citing major initiatives such as corporate tax cuts to encourage investment, the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) to unify the national market, and reforms in personal income tax to improve Ease of Living, Modi emphasised that the reform agenda has consistently been citizen-focused and pro-growth.He welcomed the ongoing #NextGe..