What is holding up our pace?
ROADS & HIGHWAYS

What is holding up our pace?

Regarding the likelihood of a failure in achieving road construction targets, as discussed in this column recently, the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH) is reportedly investigating the reasons. While the yearly target was 12,200 km of roads, the cumulated distance of roads ac...

Regarding the likelihood of a failure in achieving road construction targets, as discussed in this column recently, the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH) is reportedly investigating the reasons. While the yearly target was 12,200 km of roads, the cumulated distance of roads actually built is around 11,000 km, as per reports. This is a marginal improvement upon FY2023, when 10,457 km of highways were constructed against a target of 12,000 km. The ministry has ordered a scrutiny as part of which the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) has been asked to provide “all the data on highway construction and awards, including on construction that is nearing completion”. The report notes that data from the National Highways and Infrastructure Development Corp Ltd, Indian Roads Construction Corp and Border Roads Organisation will also be studied to fill possible gaps in the 2023 estimates. Meanwhile, interest rates may have been taken too high already. Monetary Policy Committee member Jayanth Varma already believes that more interest rate hikes have been undertaken than necessary to tackle inflation. According to him, inflation may fall below 5.5 per cent, provided crude oil prices do not rise and the monsoon progresses normally.Will real estate feel the impact? The Nasscom Strategic Review 2023 has reported creation of 290,000 new jobs in FY2023. But India’s top software companies are making up to 30 per cent fewer campus offers this year for the 2023 batch compared to last year, as a slowdown in their western markets is causing uncertainties. This has led analysts to forecast that net hiring of engineers by Indian IT companies would crash by close to half in the next fiscal starting April compared to fiscal 2023. This could upset the demand balance unless other sectors make up for the shortfall. Certain businesses such as Bharti Airtel, MakeMyTrip, Flipkart, Uber, PepsiCo, EY and Deloitte are hiring STEM talent in a big way, paving the way for an alternate source. Then, there is growing demand for tech talent by auto companies, EPC companies and over 300 startups; 80 per cent of early-stage start-ups are looking to increase their workforce in 2023. Overall, it is certain that FY23 will see a moderation of tech talent hiring in the Indian IT/technology industry; it remains to be seen whether other industries will be able to make up for this decline.Meanwhile, there is worry about private-sector projects that are shying away from reaching commercial production. The reason may lie in unutilised capacities and tardy demand. According to CMIE, crude steel capacity has risen from 91 million tonne in 2011-12 to 154 million tonne by 2021-22. But again, capacity utilisation is down from 81.8 per cent to 77.8 per cent. Cement capacity has increased from 228 million tonne in 2010-11 to 593 million tonne in 2020-21. Capacities in the industry have remained underutilised. Capacity utilisation stood at 69.5 per cent in 2021-22. There is no compelling reason for private-sector entrepreneurs to go through with their announcements in capex.CMIE reports that, in steel, there are 347 projects that aim to set up 239 million tonne of additional capacity. This is more than 1.5 times the current outstanding capacity. Of these, 39 projects involving nearly 71.3 million tonne of capacity are overdue for completion but the promoters seem to be in no hurry to commission the projects. Upon completion, these alone could raise steel capacity by almost 50 per cent. Similarly, there are 182 cement projects on hand, envisaging the establishment of 425 million tonne of additional capacity over the current 600 million tonne or so. Projects to set up 79 million tonne of cement capacity are overdue for completion. Hopefully, the MoRTH investigation leads to a high propulsion in road projects.Follow me on twitter @PratapPadode

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