GDP forecast down 1% as states clamp Covid restriction: Care Ratings

22 Apr 2021 CW Team

Towards the end of the last fiscal year in March, Care Ratings had projected a growth in GDP for FY22 to be between 11-11.2% based on gross value added (GVA) growth of 10.2%. The spread of the virus in Maharashtra had led to the state government’s announcement of a lockdown, which began in a less stringent manner from the first week of April.

Consequently, on factoring the potential loss of economic output due to the restrictions in Maharashtra, the GDP forecast for FY22 was lowered on April 5 to 10.7-10.9%. But the lockdown was made more obtrusive to business activity by April 20, with more stringency expected for the forthcoming fortnight. Further, the spread of the virus to other states has caused similar actions by governments which have ranged from night curfews and weekend lockdowns to full lockdowns.

The daily infection rate is now in the vicinity or excess of 3 lakh, and this situation is vastly different from that in March 2020, when the number was in the hundreds. The daily cases recorded on 20 April 2021 at 2.94 lakh is almost triple than the peak observed in September 2020 (~97,000) and is almost 37% of the total cases at the global level. (That number has grown on 21 April 2021 to over 3.16 lakh.) The lockdown at that time did evoke some relief from the centre.

This time, the centre has left it to the states and stated that there will be no nationwide lockdown. The ability of states to help the displaced is limited and the extension of lockdowns cannot be ruled out.

Against this background, Care Ratings has now revised their forecast for GDP growth for FY22 as the underlying conditions have changed rapidly in the last 30 days or so. It stands now at 10.2%.

CARE Ratings’ forecast for GDP in last one month (%)

Date of forecast	Forecast
24 March	11-11.2
5 April	10.7-10.9
21 April	10.2

Although the setback to economic revival is seen as being limited given the region-specific nature of fresh restrictions, the double digit growth rate in GDP in FY22 was anyway going to be more of a statistical driven number due to the decline witnessed in GDP in FY21. The growth rate over FY20 would be very modest to begin with. With these forecasts a GDP growth of 10.2% in FY22 over FY21 would imply growth of around 1.5% over FY20.

Read the full report here.

Image source

"Join industry leaders at RAHSTA Expo, India's premier platform for roads, highways and traffic infrastructure. Register now to explore innovations, network with experts and shape the future of mobility."

A new report suggests that the growth in India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will need to be recalibrated to account for the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resultant restrictions on mobility and business. Towards the end of the last fiscal year in March, Care Ratings had projected a growth in GDP for FY22 to be between 11-11.2% based on gross value added (GVA) growth of 10.2%. The spread of the virus in Maharashtra had led to the state government’s announcement of a lockdown, which began in a less stringent manner from the first week of April. Consequently, on factoring the potential loss of economic output due to the restrictions in Maharashtra, the GDP forecast for FY22 was lowered on April 5 to 10.7-10.9%. But the lockdown was made more obtrusive to business activity by April 20, with more stringency expected for the forthcoming fortnight. Further, the spread of the virus to other states has caused similar actions by governments which have ranged from night curfews and weekend lockdowns to full lockdowns. The daily infection rate is now in the vicinity or excess of 3 lakh, and this situation is vastly different from that in March 2020, when the number was in the hundreds. The daily cases recorded on 20 April 2021 at 2.94 lakh is almost triple than the peak observed in September 2020 (~97,000) and is almost 37% of the total cases at the global level. (That number has grown on 21 April 2021 to over 3.16 lakh.) The lockdown at that time did evoke some relief from the centre. This time, the centre has left it to the states and stated that there will be no nationwide lockdown. The ability of states to help the displaced is limited and the extension of lockdowns cannot be ruled out. Against this background, Care Ratings has now revised their forecast for GDP growth for FY22 as the underlying conditions have changed rapidly in the last 30 days or so. It stands now at 10.2%. CARE Ratings’ forecast for GDP in last one month (%)Date of forecastForecast24 March 11-11.25 April 10.7-10.921 April 10.2 Although the setback to economic revival is seen as being limited given the region-specific nature of fresh restrictions, the double digit growth rate in GDP in FY22 was anyway going to be more of a statistical driven number due to the decline witnessed in GDP in FY21. The growth rate over FY20 would be very modest to begin with. With these forecasts a GDP growth of 10.2% in FY22 over FY21 would imply growth of around 1.5% over FY20. Read the full report here. Image source

Infrastructure Transport

10 Jul 2026

Uttar Pradesh unveils infrastructure-led growth roadmap at RAHSTA

Mumbai, 9 July 2026: Uttar Pradesh’s ambitious infrastructure-led growth strategy took centre stage on Day 2 of the 16th RAHSTA Expo, where senior government officials outlined how expressways, industrial corridors and technology-driven governance are transforming the state into one of India's most attractive investment destinations.Delivering the keynote address, Srihari Pratap Shahi, IAS, Additional Chief Executive Officer, Uttar Pradesh Expressways Industrial Development Authority (UPEIDA), highlighted the state's long-term vision of integrating world-class expressways with industrial dev..

Real Estate

10 Jul 2026

NCW closes PRIME Offices Fund at Rs 40 billion

Nuvama and Cushman & Wakefield Management (NCW) has announced the final close of its flagship PRIME Offices Fund at approximately Rs 40 billion, exceeding its original target of Rs 30 billion following strong investor demand.The fund was launched to provide Indian investors with access to institutional-grade commercial office assets across key office markets in the country. According to NCW, the increase in the fund size was supported by strong investor participation and the availability of investment opportunities in India's office sector.The fund has already committed around 45 per cent ..

Real Estate

10 Jul 2026

Mayfair Housing adopts Autodesk Forma for digital project planning

Mayfair Housing has entered into a three-year strategic partnership with Autodesk to deploy Autodesk Forma, an AI-enabled cloud platform, as part of its digital transformation programme aimed at improving project planning and execution across its development and redevelopment portfolio.The platform will be integrated into the company's Building Information Modelling (BIM) workflow to support architects, planners and project teams during the early stages of design and development. Autodesk Forma combines real-world data, environmental simulations and collaborative workflows to facilitate data-d..