GDP forecast down 1% as states clamp Covid restriction: Care Ratings

22 Apr 2021 CW Team

Towards the end of the last fiscal year in March, Care Ratings had projected a growth in GDP for FY22 to be between 11-11.2% based on gross value added (GVA) growth of 10.2%. The spread of the virus in Maharashtra had led to the state government’s announcement of a lockdown, which began in a less stringent manner from the first week of April.

Consequently, on factoring the potential loss of economic output due to the restrictions in Maharashtra, the GDP forecast for FY22 was lowered on April 5 to 10.7-10.9%. But the lockdown was made more obtrusive to business activity by April 20, with more stringency expected for the forthcoming fortnight. Further, the spread of the virus to other states has caused similar actions by governments which have ranged from night curfews and weekend lockdowns to full lockdowns.

The daily infection rate is now in the vicinity or excess of 3 lakh, and this situation is vastly different from that in March 2020, when the number was in the hundreds. The daily cases recorded on 20 April 2021 at 2.94 lakh is almost triple than the peak observed in September 2020 (~97,000) and is almost 37% of the total cases at the global level. (That number has grown on 21 April 2021 to over 3.16 lakh.) The lockdown at that time did evoke some relief from the centre.

This time, the centre has left it to the states and stated that there will be no nationwide lockdown. The ability of states to help the displaced is limited and the extension of lockdowns cannot be ruled out.

Against this background, Care Ratings has now revised their forecast for GDP growth for FY22 as the underlying conditions have changed rapidly in the last 30 days or so. It stands now at 10.2%.

CARE Ratings’ forecast for GDP in last one month (%)

Date of forecast	Forecast
24 March	11-11.2
5 April	10.7-10.9
21 April	10.2

Although the setback to economic revival is seen as being limited given the region-specific nature of fresh restrictions, the double digit growth rate in GDP in FY22 was anyway going to be more of a statistical driven number due to the decline witnessed in GDP in FY21. The growth rate over FY20 would be very modest to begin with. With these forecasts a GDP growth of 10.2% in FY22 over FY21 would imply growth of around 1.5% over FY20.

Read the full report here.

Image source

A new report suggests that the growth in India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will need to be recalibrated to account for the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic and the resultant restrictions on mobility and business. Towards the end of the last fiscal year in March, Care Ratings had projected a growth in GDP for FY22 to be between 11-11.2% based on gross value added (GVA) growth of 10.2%. The spread of the virus in Maharashtra had led to the state government’s announcement of a lockdown, which began in a less stringent manner from the first week of April. Consequently, on factoring the potential loss of economic output due to the restrictions in Maharashtra, the GDP forecast for FY22 was lowered on April 5 to 10.7-10.9%. But the lockdown was made more obtrusive to business activity by April 20, with more stringency expected for the forthcoming fortnight. Further, the spread of the virus to other states has caused similar actions by governments which have ranged from night curfews and weekend lockdowns to full lockdowns. The daily infection rate is now in the vicinity or excess of 3 lakh, and this situation is vastly different from that in March 2020, when the number was in the hundreds. The daily cases recorded on 20 April 2021 at 2.94 lakh is almost triple than the peak observed in September 2020 (~97,000) and is almost 37% of the total cases at the global level. (That number has grown on 21 April 2021 to over 3.16 lakh.) The lockdown at that time did evoke some relief from the centre. This time, the centre has left it to the states and stated that there will be no nationwide lockdown. The ability of states to help the displaced is limited and the extension of lockdowns cannot be ruled out. Against this background, Care Ratings has now revised their forecast for GDP growth for FY22 as the underlying conditions have changed rapidly in the last 30 days or so. It stands now at 10.2%. CARE Ratings’ forecast for GDP in last one month (%)Date of forecastForecast24 March 11-11.25 April 10.7-10.921 April 10.2 Although the setback to economic revival is seen as being limited given the region-specific nature of fresh restrictions, the double digit growth rate in GDP in FY22 was anyway going to be more of a statistical driven number due to the decline witnessed in GDP in FY21. The growth rate over FY20 would be very modest to begin with. With these forecasts a GDP growth of 10.2% in FY22 over FY21 would imply growth of around 1.5% over FY20. Read the full report here. Image source

Resources

03 Jun 2026

Jyoti Structures Launches Heat Safety Drive Across Sites

Jyoti Structures (JSL) has strengthened heat safety measures across its project sites and manufacturing facilities as temperatures rise across India. The company has implemented a Summer Safety Plan covering all transmission line projects to address risks related to heat stress, dehydration and worker fatigue.The initiative includes rescheduling work away from peak afternoon temperatures, provision of drinking water, ORS and lemon-salt solutions, and installation of rest shelters near work areas. Daily toolbox talks, worker health monitoring, first-aid preparedness, emergency transport arrange..

Real Estate

03 Jun 2026

MHADA Declares 82 Buildings Most Dangerous in Central and South Mumbai

The Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority (MHADA) has declared 82 buildings as most dangerous across Central and South Mumbai and has appealed to residents to vacate immediately. The list, prepared after structural assessments by the authority, identifies buildings judged to pose imminent risk to occupants and to passersby. Local civic bodies have been asked to coordinate evacuations and to make arrangements for temporary shelter and rehabilitation for displaced households. Officials said the authority prioritised buildings with visible structural distress, severe cracking, tiltin..

Infrastructure Transport

03 Jun 2026

Damage Reported At Halwara Airport Terminal After First Rains

Severe damage was reported at the terminal of Halwara Airport during the first major rain spell of the season, prompting immediate concern among aviation and local authorities. Images from the site showed water ingress and visible deterioration of the terminal interior, affecting passenger areas and ancillary services. The airport authority suspended certain operations temporarily to assess structural safety and ensure passenger wellbeing. Preliminary inspections have prioritised electrical systems and roof seals to prevent further water ingress. State aviation officials ordered a formal inqui..