IMF scales down India’s economic growth forecast

28 Jul 2021 CW Team

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year by 300 basis points to 9.5%, down from 12.5% in April.

The IMF attributed the downward revision to a lack of access to vaccines and the possibility of new coronavirus outbreaks.

The IMF's projections for India for the current fiscal year are similar to those of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) but slightly more optimistic than the World Bank's.

Even as its recovery is hampered by an unprecedented second wave of the Covid-19, the World Bank forecasts India's economy to grow at 8.3% in 2021 and 7.5% in 2022.

The IMF, on the other hand, expects India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 8.5% in the coming fiscal year, 160 basis points higher than its previous forecast (FY23). If this occurs, India will become the world's fastest-growing large economy, with China, its closest competitor, expected to grow at 5.7%.

The IMF told the media that the growth prospects for emerging markets and developing economies, particularly emerging Asia, have been lowered for 2021. The forecast for advanced economies, on the other hand, has been revised upwards. These updates take into account pandemic developments as well as changes in policy support.

Similar dynamics are at work in the ASEAN-5 group (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam), where recent outbreaks of infection have slowed activity.

China's forecast for 2021 has been lowered by 0.3% due to a reduction in public investment and overall fiscal support.

The IMF has maintained its 6.0% global growth forecast for 2021. It also forecasts that the global economy will grow by 4.9% in 2022, up from 4.4% previously. In 2020, global output fell by 3.3%.

Image Source

Also read: Indian economy on revival path: Union Minister Pankaj Chaudhary

Also read: Macroeconomic fundamentals of India remain strong: Deepak Parekh

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year by 300 basis points to 9.5%, down from 12.5% in April. The IMF attributed the downward revision to a lack of access to vaccines and the possibility of new coronavirus outbreaks. The IMF's projections for India for the current fiscal year are similar to those of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) but slightly more optimistic than the World Bank's. Even as its recovery is hampered by an unprecedented second wave of the Covid-19, the World Bank forecasts India's economy to grow at 8.3% in 2021 and 7.5% in 2022. The IMF, on the other hand, expects India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow by 8.5% in the coming fiscal year, 160 basis points higher than its previous forecast (FY23). If this occurs, India will become the world's fastest-growing large economy, with China, its closest competitor, expected to grow at 5.7%. The IMF told the media that the growth prospects for emerging markets and developing economies, particularly emerging Asia, have been lowered for 2021. The forecast for advanced economies, on the other hand, has been revised upwards. These updates take into account pandemic developments as well as changes in policy support. Similar dynamics are at work in the ASEAN-5 group (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam), where recent outbreaks of infection have slowed activity. China's forecast for 2021 has been lowered by 0.3% due to a reduction in public investment and overall fiscal support. The IMF has maintained its 6.0% global growth forecast for 2021. It also forecasts that the global economy will grow by 4.9% in 2022, up from 4.4% previously. In 2020, global output fell by 3.3%. Image Source Also read: Indian economy on revival path: Union Minister Pankaj Chaudhary Also read: Macroeconomic fundamentals of India remain strong: Deepak Parekh

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